The Link between Gentrification and Displacement and the Effects of Displacement on Residents in Los Angeles County
By Ashley Qiang
Over the past decades, gentrification has accelerated across the country. Along with this phenomenon comes growing concern about displacement, although limited research has been dedicated to examining gentrification’s impact on displacement. This paper studies the link between gentrification and displacement, as well as who is more likely to be displaced and the effects on the displaced. The results show that lower-income renters are significantly more likely to be displaced from gentrifying neighborhoods, and they tend to move to worse neighborhoods with lower education quality and higher crime rates.
Advisors: Chistopher Timmins, Michelle Connolly, Alison Hagy | JEL Codes: R1, R21, R23
The Effect of Minority History on Racial Disparities in the Mortgage Market: A Case Study of Durham and New Haven
By Jisoo Yoon
In the aftermath of the housing market crash, the concentration of subprime mortgage loans in minority neighborhoods is a current and long-standing issue. This study investigates the presence of racial disparities in mortgage markets by examining two cities with contrasting histories of African American and Hispanic establishment: Durham, North Carolina and New Haven, Connecticut. This study examines data by the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA), and distills the effect of minority legacy on the perception of racial risk by using econometric instruments to separate the behavior of national lenders and local lenders. The econometric methods allow national lenders to reflect objective risk measures and neighborhood race dynamics, while local lenders reflect subjective attitudes towards certain races. With its longer history of African American presence, Durham shows a positive attitude towards Black borrowers at the local level, while New Haven shows a more favorable attitude towards its Hispanic residents. Nonetheless, racial legacy also materializes as a negative factor in the form of increased residential segregation and spillover effects. Furthermore, a temporal variation analysis of pre- and post-mortgage market reform data affirms the disappearance of racial bias and continued presence of spillover risk in Durham.
Advisor: Christopher Timmins | JEL Codes: C01, G21, J15, R21, R23, R31 | Tagged: Econometrics, Mortgages, Economics of Minorities, Races, Census, Migration, Population, Neighborhood Characteristics, Housing Supply and Market
The effect of Mexico’s Conditional Cash Transfer Program on Migration Decisions
By Aki Ishikawa
The Mexican conditional cash transfer program, Oportunidades, is commonly overlooked for long-term evaluations. One understudied effect of this poverty-reduction program is the change in migration behavior caused by the cash transfers. Using data from the Mexican Family Life Survey, this study outlines the effects of the social net program on international migration of low-income households in Mexico. The results suggest that the program causes a positive increase in likelihood for international migration for program participants. Within participating households, individuals who are responsible for grant income tend to migrate less compared to the other members of the households. This research provides valuable insight into existing literature on migration of low-income households in relation to the availability of the conditional cash transfer program.
Advisor: Charles Becker | JEL Codes: R2, R23, R28 | Tagged: Conditional Cash Transfer Program, Developmental Economics, International Migration
The Impact of Population Mobility on repayment Rates in Microfinance Institutions
By Allison Vernerey and Johan Hörnell
Several studies have attempted to model the determinants of repayment rates for group-based loans administered by micro-finance institutions (MFIs). One of the main variables that have been identifies as playing a role in determining the repayment rate is social capital. Empirical research however has struggled with quantifying this qualitative variable, resulting in vast inconsistencies across studies, aggravating cross-comparison and objective interpretation. Instead, we argue that the use of quantitative, cross-country comparable proxy that is intuitively linked to social capital would yield more consistent and reliable results. We hypothesize that population mobility is such a proxy, and that lower population mobility correlates positively with higher social capital and thus higher repayment rates. Using population mobility as a proxy for social capital would allow MFIs to lower their cost of data collection for performance assessments and simplify the process for policy makers trying to evaluate the programs success. At the village level, we find significant evidence that higher emigration within a community is strongly linked to lower repayment rates in micro-finance. These results provide micro-finance institutions with a new and more cost effective way to monitor their performance as well as improve their capacity to make well-informed lending decisions.
Advisors: Genna Miller, Kent Kimbrough | JEL Codes: G, G2, G21 | Tagged: Bangladash, Microfinance Institutions, Population Mobility, Repayment Rates, Social Capital
Race and Pollution Correlation as Predictor of Environmental Injustice
By Marissa Meir
Environmental injustice is a theory that claims distributions of toxic, hazardous and dangerous waste facilities are disproportionately located in low-income communities of color. This paper empirically demonstrates an alternative cause of environmental injustice- that low-income minorities are less likely to receive sizeable enough loans to buy a house in a cleaner area. It highlights a significant time in history, from 1999 to 2007, when wealth constraints were eased and loan amounts increased for people with the same income. The results show that minorities increase their demand of environmental goods given an increase in loan amounts, suggesting that people of color care about environmental quality, but, due to wealth constraints, do not have the same opportunities
in the housing market.
Advisor: Christopher Timmins | JEL Codes: P46, P48, Q50, Q53, Q56, Q58, R20, R21, R31, R32 | Tagged: Air Quality, Environmental Injustice, Housing Market, Income, Loan, Wealth Constraints
Trailer Park Economics
By Caitlin Gorback
In this paper, we explore the various reasons behind the development of the American institution of trailer parks. The first two models arise in equilibrium, the last two respond to housing shocks. Models include “Bad Tenants” in which tenants and landowners contract to protect against bad neighbors, a basic “Capital Constraints model in which tenants and landowners share the burden of capital costs, “Uncertain Growth” in which landowners respond to boom and bust economic growth, and “Long vs. Short Run Growth” in which landowners must decide how to invest on their land given rates of land appreciation.
Advisor: Charles Becker | JEL Codes: R21, R23, R31 | Tagged: Housing, Manufactured Housing, Rural Growth, Trailer Parks, Urban Growth
