Blaze of Distrust: The Impact of Wildfires on Social Capital and Governance in Brazilian Amazonia
by Feishi “Alicia” Gong
Abstract
The 2019 wildfire crisis in Brazilian Amazonia not only captured global headlines but also deeply influenced public sentiment towards environmental and political challenges within the country. Trust, a pivotal element of social capital, plays a vital role in shaping a nation’s progress and the well-being of its citizens. This study employs detailed satellite data on wildfire occurrences and survey data reflecting Brazilian public opinion to investigate the nature of fire activity in Brazilian Amazonia, treating it as indicative of organized criminal behavior. Further, it delves into the ramifications of wildfires on the institutional and interpersonal trust of Brazilians. Our findings reveal that wildfires exert a considerable detrimental impact on the trust that local residents place in institutions and each other. These insights underscore the urgency of enhancing environmental protection measures and wildfire management strategies. By doing so, Brazil can bolster its social capital and empower local governments to rebuild and maintain public trust effectively.
Professor Michelle Connolly, Faculty Advisor
JEL Codes: H70, Q23, Q51
The True Cost: An Aggregate Analysis of the Advanced Clean Cars II Policy
by Lauren Mackenzie Sizemore
Abstract
Global climate change, emphasis on the global, requires local solutions. Every entity plays a role, some more than others. Yet, when improvements in pollution or emissions in one region leads to more problems in another, how is the net cost or benefit to be deciphered for the environment, for the economy, and for humanity in general? Advanced Clean Cars II (ACC II), a proposed policy in California, United States, is a practical test of this question. For each model year beginning in 2026, the potential law gives a percentage of new vehicle sales that must be zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) – cars that do not emit exhaust gas or other pollutants from the onboard source of power – or plug-in-hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). By 2035, ACC II would require all new vehicles purchased in California to be either a ZEV or a PHEV. With reduced tailpipe emissions, California expects to benefit from reduced smog, less carbon emissions, better air quality, a reduction in air-related health issues such as asthma, and increased sales from California-based electric vehicle companies such as Tesla and Rivian. Since air is a common resource, improving California’s quality also betters air globally. Yet emissions and pollution produced during the mining, production, and scrappage phases work in opposition to the decreased tailpipe emissions. By converting each type of pollutant into a per vehicle dollar cost, I paint a better picture of the global cost-benefit. The per vehicle cost is scaled based on the expected number of electric and conventional vehicles in California which is predicted under two scenarios: ACC II passes with full enforcement and the law is not passed. I forecast the number of electric vehicles likely bought in both instances using the Bass Model for New Product Growth of Consumer Durables (Bass 1969). I determine that a maximum of eighteen states, including California, could successfully implement ACC II and lower emissions given their 2021 electricity grid’s carbon intensity.
Professor Connel Fullenkamp, Faculty Advisor
Professor Michelle Connolly, Faculty Advisor
JEL Codes: Q5, Q51, Q58
The Effect of Algae Blooms on Property Values located on Florida’s Indian River Lagoon
by Cameron DeChurch
Abstract
Florida’s Indian River Lagoon has algae blooms that devastate ecosystems, water quality, and markets for seafood, recreation, and housing. This study estimates part of their economic impact by examining water quality’s relationship with prices of properties sold near the estuary from 2007 to 2016. Using water quality scores from 0 to 100, my regression analysis estimates that one-unit increases in water quality are associated with one-percent increases in sale price. Upon summing this relationship over all properties in the sample, my paper estimates that these algae blooms have cost the housing market between $756 million to $3.6 billion.
Professor Christopher D. Timmins, Faculty Advisor
Professor Kent P. Kimbrough, Faculty Advisor
JEL Codes: Q5, Q51, R21
Variability in Jury Awards for Noneconomic Damages in Motor Vehicle Negligence Cases
By Max Cherman
I analyze the efficiency of jury awards for noneconomic compensatory damages awarded to automobile accident victims suffering nonfatal injuries bringing motor vehicle negligence tort claims. Data from 1002 Jury Verdict Research (JVR) case abstracts was narrowed down to 218 observations of plaintiffs receiving noneconomic damages awards at trials involving motor vehicle negligence from 1988-2019 across the United States. Using age-specific value of life estimations, functional capacity losses associated with plaintiffs’ injuries, and productivity losses, I estimate an ‘expected’ noneconomic damages award that serves as a benchmark against which I compare observed awards. I regress the natural log of the ratio of observed to ‘expected’ awards on injury- severity-level indicator variables and other controls, thus attempting to find whether juries award disproportionately high or low noneconomic damages awards in accordance with plaintiff, defendant, or case-specific factors. I conclude that juries award disproportionate noneconomic damages at the opposite ends of the injury severity spectrum, with plaintiffs suffering severe injuries receiving disproportionately high awards. I also find that juries punish business and government entity plaintiffs. These results serve as evidence that jury decision-making is indeed significantly impacted by hindsight bias in large-value cases and attempts to punish supposedly wealthier defendants, creating inconsistency (variability) in compensatory damages award determinations.
Advisors: Professor Christopher Timmins, Professor Kent Kimbrough | JEL Codes: K1, K13, Q51
Shale Gas Development and Housing Value in the United Kingdom: Impact of the 13th Onshore Licensing, 2008
By Esther Lho
While shale gas is a prospective energy source, it is known to bring environmental deficits to the drilling neighborhood. Because of such concerns, property values fluctuate upon the possibility of shale gas fracturing. This paper examines the change in housing prices before and after the release of the 13th onshore oil and gas licensing round, which took place in 2008 when shale gas was increasingly being considered as the alternative to ease the United Kingdom’s dependency on coal. Results suggest that the 2008 licensing has caused a 3% decrease in housing price growth rate for the licensed areas.
Advisor: Christopher Timmins | JEL Codes: Q42, Q5, Q51 | Tagged: Consumer Expectation, Fracturing, Hedonic Price, Housing Prices, Property valuation, Shale Gas, United Kingdom
Understanding the Value of Amenities: A Study of the Land Value Determination Process in Hangzhou, China
By Ching-Ching Chen
This paper seeks to investigate the determinants of land within Hangzhou China. There are two main goals that the research paper will attempt to address. The first is to build upon existing research on land pricing in terms of the theories outlined by the monocentric city and hedonic pricing models. Second, the paper will use a dataset of Hangzhou land sales transactions between the years of 2003 and 2011 to investigate the possible existence of “luxury residuals” among commercial and residential land parcels. Nonetheless, due to the presence of large residuals, while Chinese consumers value certain amenities is not fully captured by these results. Rather, a number of case studies or outliers are used to fully examine the influences of these amenity variables in driving extreme prices. The result support the hypothesis that China, located at the bottom of Kuznets environmental curve, values amenities at extreme levels as a result of scarcity.
Advisor: Charles Becker, Kent Kimbrough | JEL Codes: Q51, R0, R14, R52 | Tagged: Empirical Analysis, Hangzhou Land Price Appreciation, Hedonic Pricing Model, Kuznets Curve, Monocentric City Model
