Illuminating the Economic Costs of Conflict: A Night Light Analysis of the Sri Lankan Civil War
by Nicholas Kiran Wijesekera
Abstract
This paper investigates the economic consequences of the Sri Lankan Civil War (1983-2009) by using event-based data on civilian and combatant fatalities in addition to night light imagery as a proxy for economic activity. By looking at regional economic activity across the island of Sri Lanka, this paper
seeks to identify how violence led to declines or undershoots of economic activity in the areas in which it was most prevalent. The use of night light data gives a
hyper-localized proxy measurement of this activity for each year of the war. The investigation finds that government and rebel deaths have strong, negative effects on economic activity, and that these effects spill over across time and space. Additionally, the manner in which civilian deaths occur is an important determinant of their subsequent economic impact. The paper offers new findings on the economic legacy of the Sri Lankan Civil War and extends existing work on the use of night light data to measure economic activity during conflict.
Charles Becker, Faculty Advisor
Michelle Connolly, Faculty Advisor
JEL Codes: H56, N45, O53
Economic Effects of the War in Donbas: Nightlights and the Ukrainian fight for freedom
By Riad Kanj
Abstract
The conflict in Eastern Ukraine began in 2014, and it has now turned into a full-scale
invasion. The separatist areas of Donetsk and Luhansk have remained isolated for the last eight
years while fighting between rebels and the Ukrainian government has continued at a low but
regular level since then. Previous studies analyze the impact of the war in Donbas on the
economic situation in the region, such as the industry and GRP growth. However, this research
uses data solely from the initial part of the conflict (2014-2016) and does not take into account the
severity of the fighting. By using both the DMSP-OLS and VIIRS data as an approximation of
economic activity in addition to the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) casualty numbers,
the analysis explores the effects of violent conflict on economic activity over a longer period of
the Donbas war.
This paper uses both yearly and monthly satellite data in analyzing the general progression
of the conflict in addition to the monthly progression. Furthermore, nightlight data of Ukrainian
municipalities outside of Donbas are used in computing the Donbas region’s nightlight data across
several years. The UCDP data for civilian and battle-related casualties are used separately to show
the causal effects of the different fighting severities. A Two-Stage Least Squares regression is
used to see the effects of battle severity on economic outcomes.
Professor Charles Becker, Faculty Advisor
Professor Grace Kim, Faculty Advisor
JEL classification: F51; H56; O52; N44
Deciphering Chinese Financing To African Countries
By Gwen Geng
The paper considers what attracts Chinese aid and Chinese investment to African countries and what kinds of Chinese financing projects are more likely to have unrevealed financing amount. The main database used is AidData: China’s Official Finance to Africa 2000-2012. It contains 2356 Chinese financing projects to 50 African countries. The results suggest that Chinese aid supports less developed economies, while Chinese investment favors countries with resource abundance and political conditions conducive to profit-making. The findings show that projects with unrevealed funding amounts tend to fall under investment and the government sector among other categories, raising questions on financing secrecy.
Advisors: Robert Garlick and Michelle Connolly | JEL Codes: F13, F54, N47, N57, O24, R11, R15
Martin Bronfenbrenner: An Economist in the American Occupation of Japan
By Michael Potts
Martin Bronfenbrenner (1914-1997) was one of the last of a generation of generalist economists. His involvement in the U.S. Occupation of Japan changed his life and his career. This paper examines the mutually stabilizing relationship between his persona and his work in light of his experiences in Japan. Access to Bronfenbrenner’s previously restricted and unpublished autobiography archived in the Economists Papers Project at Duke University allows the author to reconstruct, from primary source material, some of the challenges faced by the individual, prewar-trained economist in navigating the postwar transformation of the economics discipline.
Advisor: E. Roy Weintraub | JEL Codes: B2, B31, N45, N95 | Tagged: U.S. Occupation of Japan, Economic Japanology: Martin Bronfenbrenner
