Alcohol Use and Assault: Regression Discontinuity Evidence from the Minimum Legal Drinking Age
by Maggie Hu
Abstract
While it has long been observed that alcohol consumption is a risk factor for violence, the economics literature has up until recently provided minimal persuasive evidence regarding the causal nature of this relationship. In this study, we employ a regression discontinuity (RD) framework to examine how arrest and victimization rates from assault change at age 21, the U.S. minimum legal drinking age (MLDA-21). Utilizing annual FBI arrest data from the past 36 years since 1988, when the last states adopted the MLDA-21, we estimate that for both males and females, reaching the MLDA increases arrest rates for aggravated and other simple assaults by 5 – 8%, with the aggravated assault effect for females restricted to the latter half of the sample period. Analogous effects at slightly older ages are small and insignificant, as well as the effects for demographic and population characteristics expected to trend smoothly across the MLDA-21 threshold. We extend our analysis of assault-related violence by assessing victimization outcomes, particularly the effect of the MLDA-21 nonfatal injury, by leveraging emergency department (ED) data from the CDC’s Web-based Injury Statistics and Query Reporting System (WISQARS) spanning the period 2001–2022. Notably, we observe that ED visits for “struck by or against” assaults rise significantly by 7–10%, indicating increased participation in violent altercations and increased risk of victimization upon obtaining legal access to alcohol. Taken together, these results suggest that alcohol use increases aggression and violent behavior, the consequences of which thereby represent criminal justice and public health costs that would be exacerbated by lowering the MLDA.
Professor Jeffrey DeSimone, Faculty Advisor
JEL Codes: I18, I12, K0, K32
Keywords: Health Economics, Alcohol Policy, Education and Welfare
Asylum Determination within the European Union (EU): Whether Capacity and Social Constraints Impact the Likelihood of Refugee Status Determination
By Louden Paul Richason
This paper analyzes whether capacity and social constraints impact acceptance rates for asylum seekers in the European Union from 2000-2016. Theoretically people should receive asylum based on the criteria outlined in international law – a well founded fear of persecution – but the influx and distribution of applicants in the European Union suggests that this may not hold in practice. For a group of pre identified “legitimate” asylum cases, this paper finds that surges in applications in a country (i.e. capacity constraints) have a positive and statistically significant correlation with acceptance rates, while the percentage of migrants in a country (i.e. social constraints) has a negative and statistically significant correlation with acceptance rates. This suggests that the burden of proof becomes easier during a surge in total applications in a country. However, as the international migrant stock in that country increases, it is more difficult for that same group of applicants to receive asylum.
Advisors: Professor Suzanne Shanahan, Professor Michelle Connolly | JEL Codes: D73, D78, F22, H12, J11, J15, K37, O52
Security Without Equity? The Effect of Secure Communities on Racial Profiling by Police
By Jack Willoughby
Anecdotal and circumstantial evidence suggest that the implementation of Secure Communities, a federal program that allows police officers to more easily identify illegal immigrants, has increased racial bias by police. The goal of this analysis is to empirically evaluate the effect of Secure Communities on racial bias by police using motor vehicle stop and search data from the North Carolina State Bureau of Investigation. This objective differs from most previous research, which has largely attempted to quantify racial profiling for a moment in time rather than looking at how an event influences racial profiling. I examine the effects of Secure Communities on police treatment of Hispanics vs. whites with an expanded difference-in-difference approach that looks at outcomes in motor vehicle search success rate, search rate conditional on a police stop, stop rate, and police action conditional on stop. Statistical analyses yield no evidence that the ratification of Secure Communities increased racial profiling against Hispanics by police. This finding is at odds with the anecdotal and circumstantial evidence that has led many to believe that the ratification of Secure Communities led to a widespread increase in racial profiling by police, a discrepancy that should caution policy makers about making decisions driven by stories and summary statistics.
Advisor: Frank Sloan | JEL Codes: J15, K14, K37, K42 | Tagged: Racial Policing, Bias, Immigration Law, Secure Communities
