Tale of Two Cities An Econometric Analysis of East & West Coast Fine Art Galleries
by Daniella Victoria Paretti
Abstract
In a 2021 report published alongside Art Basel and UBS, renowned cultural economist Dr. Clare McAndrew posited that the value of art sales in 2020 amounted to an impressive $50 billion (although this actually marks an over 10-year low). It is no secret that the global art markets are extremely lucrative, attracting the interest of industry magnates and business tycoons alike. Though it is important to note that art markets are historically quite distinct from their normal good counterparts — the sector is laden with issues regarding transparency, high barriers to entry, and hiding of wealth. Amidst the COVID-19 pandemic, however, the tides began to turn; online platforms for museums, auction houses, and galleries were employed more than ever before, effectively modernizing the antiquated industry and expanding its reach to new consumers. How has this trend of digitalization changed and improved art markets? More specifically, how can data analytics and other technological resources serve the interests of private galleries? Using sales data from a parent gallery with multiple locations across the United States (each displaying similar works/artists), I have conducted a number of qualitative and statistical analyses to identify key differences between the West and East coast locations. In short, the gallery on the West coast sold more works and at a lower average cost than its counterpart, providing key insights into this local market’s consumer base. Beyond this, factors like size, medium, and artist gender were found to have statistically significant effects on the ultimate sale price and turnover rate of works. My findings suggest that means of data analytics should be utilized by all actors in the art markets to optimize their approach to business, as well as understand their consumers better than ever before.
Professor Michelle Connolly, Faculty Advisor
Professor Hans Van Miegroet, Faculty Advisor
JEL Codes: Z11, C10, J11, O33
Subprime’s Long shadow: Understanding subprime lending’s role in the St. Louis vacancy crisis
by Glen David Morgenstern
Abstract
Using loan-level data, this analysis attempts to connect the events of the subprime home loan boom to the current vacancy crisis in St. Louis, Missouri. Borrowers in Black areas in the north of St. Louis City and St. Louis County received subprime home loans at higher rates during the subprime boom period of 2003-2007 than those in White areas, with differences in balloon loans especially stark. Specifically, borrowers in Black neighborhoods received subprime loans more frequently than those with equal FICO scores in White neighborhoods. As a result of these differential loan terms, North City and inner ring “First Suburb” areas saw more foreclosure and borrower payment delinquency, which in turn were highly associated with home vacancy, controlling for other risk factors. However, foreclosure was no longer a significant predictor of home vacancy after controlling for demographic factors and FICO score, indicating that the unequal loan terms may have driven much of the increase in home vacancy in the St. Louis area since the Great Recession.
Professor Charles Becker, Faculty Advisor
JEL Codes: R1; R3; R11; R31; J1; J15
Withdrawal: The Difficulty of Transitioning to a Cashless Economy
by Praneeth Kandula
Abstract
In 2021, modern payment methods such as mobile pay have increased nearly fivefold since their introduction in 2015. This shift to an increasingly cashless, digital economy has been marked by inequitable financial and technological divides. Historically, Black and Latino adults have had less access to financial systems and are less likely to own traditional computers and home broadband. Without rectifying these issues, a cashless, digital economy only serves to widen divides. Using data from the Diary of Consumer Payment, this study descriptively examines the use of cash and alternative payment methods by different racial and ethnic groups from 2015 through 2020. I also extend this effort to address the effects of COVID-19. I find that racial differences not only exist but also the gap between Black and Latino adults and White adults grows between 2015 and 2019. Still, this paper finds that in 2020 the likelihood to employ cash for a transaction falls for Black adults but not for Latino adults. COVID-19 has been a critical driver of change, forcing both consumers and corporations to shift to a more digital-centric economy. While there have been positive shifts for Black adults, policy ensuring that all racial groups have access to the necessary financial and digital networks will be critical in establishing an equitable economy moving forward.
Professor Lisa A. Gennetian, Faculty Advisor
Professor Michelle P. Connolly, Faculty Advisor
JEL Codes: D1 D31 G20 I24 J11
Financial Inclusion and Women’s Economic Empowerment in India
by Nehal Jain
Abstract
On August 14th, 2014 India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi implemented the largest ever financial inclusion scheme to date known as Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana (PMJDY). The program aimed to bank all of India’s unbanked population. Prior to the program, India had one of the highest rates of unbanked citizens. The program also included measures that prioritized women’s access to these financial institutions given the gender gap in financial inclusivity. This paper aims both to understand the effectiveness of PMJDY on granting women equal access as men to financial institutions and whether financial inclusion results in increased economic empowerment, I find that PMJDY was successful in increasing access to bank accounts and separately, that access to bank accounts economically empowers women.
Professor Pengpeng Xiao, Faculty Advisor
Professor Michelle Connolly, Faculty Advisor
JEL Codes: J1; G28; I31
The Russian Maternity Capital Policy: Two Models
by Jackson Cooksey
Abstract
Between 1991 and 2007 the Russian Federation experienced a decrease in population and a drop in total fertility rate below population replacement levels. In 2007 the government, citing the importance of forestalling this decline, implemented the Russian Maternity Capital Policy, a one-time subsidy to those families who have a second or higher order birth. Study aims to analyze the impact of this policy on the total fertility rate of the Russian Federation to better understand post-Soviet trends in fertility and gain insight into how effective similar policies will be in the future if implemented elsewhere. This study uses two models to assess the policy. First, a novel difference-indifference- in-difference model is developed to add to existing literature on the policy. Second, a synthetic control model is developed generate a counterfactual to measure causal effects of the policy on total fertility rate in Russia. Difference-in-difference-indifference estimations show the policy having a 0% to 3.5% positive effect on fertility, and the synthetic control model results show that the policy had a large impact on fertility in the mid-2010s but this change has declined since 2019.
Professor Charles Becker, Faculty Advisor
JEL Codes: J, J1, J11, J12, J13
Analysis of Brain Diagnoses and the Incidence of Chronic Traumatic Encephalopathy (CTE)
by Arjun Lakhanpal
Abstract
Chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE) has become a significant area of scientific inquiry in relation to various sports with contact exposure, specifically boxing and professional football, resulting from many individuals who participated in these sports being diagnosed with CTE neuropathology after death. This paper contributes to the CTE literature by analyzing the various predictors of the progression of neurodegenerative disorders, including CTE, that are associated with a history of head impact exposure. In addition, it analyzes how manner of death shifts depending on an individual’s clinical brain diagnosis, which is a decision based upon the clinical record and case review of a patient.
Through data from the NIH NeuroBioBank, the VA-BU-CLF Brain Bank, and data self-collected from living individuals with symptoms associated with CTE, this paper explores an analysis of various brain diagnoses through a large control population and small subset of athletes and veterans. Logistic regression models are established to analyze explanatory variables of clinical brain diagnosis, manner of death, and CTE presence and severity.
These logistic regression models confirm previous research surrounding the potential racial influence present in Black populations with schizophrenia related diagnoses and illustrate the degree to which neurodegenerative disorders, specifically Parkinson’s Disease, are influenced by increased age. Specific to CTE, the analysis conducted through the sample population illustrates the influence of an extra year of football played at the professional level, while counteracting existing literature regarding the association between position and CTE.
Professor Jason Luck,Faculty Advisor
Professor Michelle Connolly, Faculty Advisor
JEL Codes: I10, Z20, J15
Impacts of Housing Interventions on Neighborhoods in Durham County
by Cassandra Turk
Abstract
Housing intervention models intended to revitalize neighborhoods and empower homeowners are frequently observed in cities across the United States. To determine the efficacy of these programs, this study analyzes the effects of a housing intervention on the price of the home and the changes in neighborhood characteristics that may lead to neighborhood stability or instability in the long run, including the home prices, the racial makeup, the median income, and crime rates of the neighborhood. To study these characteristics and how they interact with interventions, I implement a propensity score matching model to reduce variation in unobservable characteristics and to isolate the effect of interventions on the block group characteristics of interest. In addition, I implement a non-parametric kernel regression to allow for the possibility of a non-linear relationship between home prices and home interventions. The results show significant evidence that interventions increase neighborhood home values at the bottom 10th percentile and at the median of each block group, suggesting that housing interventions do serve to increase the quality of the neighborhood. However, there is evidence that these effects taper off after a certain percent of the households in the neighborhood have been intervened upon, reducing the marginal benefit of completing a new housing intervention.
Professor Christopher Timmins, Faculty Advisor
Professor Michelle Connolly, Faculty Advisor
JEL Codes: R2, R23, J10
Maternal Grandparent Living Arrangements and the Motherhood Wage Penalty for Mothers in China
by Mary Wang
Abstract
Living arrangements of mothers in China significantly impact their annual wages and motherhood wage penalties. I study how the presence of mothers’ parents, or the maternal grandparents, affect mothers’ wages for each child living in the mothers’ households. Existing literature finds that mothers in China not only experience a motherhood wage penalty, but also observe wage impacts from the living arrangements of their family members, such as the paternal and maternal grandparents. Although existing research on motherhood wage penalties references the China Health and Nutrition Survey, I use data from the China Family Panel Studies, the most recent and comprehensive panel survey that reflects the social and economic transformations of contemporary China. To extend and update the analysis of living arrangements on the motherhood wage penalty, I present evidence of the impact of living arrangements on the motherhood wage penalty, distinguishing between the presence of the maternal grandmother, maternal grandfather, and both maternal grandparents. While I find clear evidence that the presence of the maternal grandmother in the household counters the motherhood wage penalty, due to the lack of data on single mothers, I am not able to find conclusive evidence of a difference in the impact of grandparents on the motherhood wage penalty for single mothers compared with married mothers.
Professor Peter Arcidiacono, Faculty Advisor
Professor Michelle Connolly, Faculty Advisor
JEL Codes: J12, J16, J21
Where You Live and Where You Move: A Cross-City Comparison of the Effects of Gentrification and How these Effects Are Tied to Racial History
By Divya Juneja
This thesis compares the effects of gentrification on school and air quality in ten cities to see whether cities with larger amounts of white flight post-World War II exhibited worse gentrification effects on renters. I find that renters in high white flight cities more consistently experience school quality downgrades—likely attributed to moving from gentrifying neighborhoods to worse neighborhoods. High white flight meant widespread de-investment across neighborhoods which could have lowered the school quality experienced by displaced renters. Gentrification did not consistently affect air quality in any way related to white flight, meaning confounding variables could have influence.
Advisors: Professor Christopher Timmins, Professor Alison Hagy | JEL Codes: R2, R3, J11
Hedonic Pricing in the Sneaker Resale Market
By Kevin Ma and Matthew Treiber
This paper explores the secondary resale market for high-end and limited-edition sneakers, specifically analyzing the determinants that affect what value sneakers trade for in the secondary market. While it is common knowledge that the sneaker resale market is a thriving and active secondary market, there is little to no empirical research about what exactly causes such sneakers to sell for exorbitant prices in the resale market. The study utilizes a hedonic pricing approach to investigate the determinants of sneaker resale price. We use a dataset of sneaker resale transactions from the online marketplace StockX between the years of 2016 and 2020 as the basis for our research. After analyzing the results, we have determined that the amount of “hype” that surrounds a sneaker as well as supply scarcity are statistically significant factors when determining the resale price premium a particular sneaker commands in the secondary market. This work adds to the sparse literature on the sneaker resale industry and brings an econometrics-approach to determining the price a given pair of sneakers commands in the resale market.
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Advisors: Professor Kyle Jurado, Professor Michelle Connolly, Professor Grace Kim| JEL Codes: C2, C20, J19
