Illuminating the Economic Costs of Conflict: A Night Light Analysis of the Sri Lankan Civil War
by Nicholas Kiran Wijesekera
Abstract
This paper investigates the economic consequences of the Sri Lankan Civil War (1983-2009) by using event-based data on civilian and combatant fatalities in addition to night light imagery as a proxy for economic activity. By looking at regional economic activity across the island of Sri Lanka, this paper
seeks to identify how violence led to declines or undershoots of economic activity in the areas in which it was most prevalent. The use of night light data gives a
hyper-localized proxy measurement of this activity for each year of the war. The investigation finds that government and rebel deaths have strong, negative effects on economic activity, and that these effects spill over across time and space. Additionally, the manner in which civilian deaths occur is an important determinant of their subsequent economic impact. The paper offers new findings on the economic legacy of the Sri Lankan Civil War and extends existing work on the use of night light data to measure economic activity during conflict.
Charles Becker, Faculty Advisor
Michelle Connolly, Faculty Advisor
JEL Codes: H56, N45, O53
Economic Effects of the War in Donbas: Nightlights and the Ukrainian fight for freedom
By Riad Kanj
Abstract
The conflict in Eastern Ukraine began in 2014, and it has now turned into a full-scale
invasion. The separatist areas of Donetsk and Luhansk have remained isolated for the last eight
years while fighting between rebels and the Ukrainian government has continued at a low but
regular level since then. Previous studies analyze the impact of the war in Donbas on the
economic situation in the region, such as the industry and GRP growth. However, this research
uses data solely from the initial part of the conflict (2014-2016) and does not take into account the
severity of the fighting. By using both the DMSP-OLS and VIIRS data as an approximation of
economic activity in addition to the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) casualty numbers,
the analysis explores the effects of violent conflict on economic activity over a longer period of
the Donbas war.
This paper uses both yearly and monthly satellite data in analyzing the general progression
of the conflict in addition to the monthly progression. Furthermore, nightlight data of Ukrainian
municipalities outside of Donbas are used in computing the Donbas region’s nightlight data across
several years. The UCDP data for civilian and battle-related casualties are used separately to show
the causal effects of the different fighting severities. A Two-Stage Least Squares regression is
used to see the effects of battle severity on economic outcomes.
Professor Charles Becker, Faculty Advisor
Professor Grace Kim, Faculty Advisor
JEL classification: F51; H56; O52; N44
Assessing the Impacts of an Aging Population on Rising Healthcare and Pharmaceutical Expenditures within the United States
By Rahul Sharma
This paper studies the impact of aging on rising healthcare and pharmaceutical expenditures in the United States with the goal of contextualizing the future burden of public health insurance on the government. Precedent literature has focused on international panels of multiple countries and hasn’t identified significant correlation between age and healthcare expenditures. This paper presents a novel approach of identifying this correlation by using a US sample population to determine if age impacts an individual’s consumption of healthcare services and goods. Results suggest that age has a significant impact on healthcare and pharmaceutical expenditures across private and public insurance.
Advisors: Gilliam D. Saunders-Schmidler and Grace Kim | JEL Codes: H51, H53, I12, I13, I18, I38
Neighborhood Effects and School Performance: The Impact of Public Housing Demolitions on Children in North Carolina
By Rebecca Aqostino
This study explores how the demolitions of particularly distressed public housing units, through the Home Ownership for People Everywhere (HOPE VI) grants program, have affected academic outcomes for children in adjacent neighborhoods in Durham and Wilmington, North Carolina. I measure neighborhood-level changes and individual effects through regression analysis. All students in demolition communities are compared to those in control communities: census blocks in the same cities with public housing units that were not demolished. Those in the Durham experiment community experienced statistically significant gains when compared to those in the control communities; the effect is insignificant in Wilmington.
Advisor: Charles Becker | JEL Codes: C23, H41, H52, H75, I24, I25 | Tagged: Achievement, Demolitions, Distressed Housing, HOPE VI, Neighborhood Effects, Public Housing, School Performance
