Prediction in Economics: a Case Study of Economists’ Views on the 2008 Financial Crisis
By Weiran Zeng Prediction in economics is the focal point of debate for the future of economics, ever since economists were burdened with the failure to “predict” the 2008 Financial Crisis. This paper discusses positions held by philosophers and economic methodologists regarding what kinds of predictions there are and creates a taxonomy of prediction. Through […]
Multi-Horizon Forecast Optimality Based on Related Forecast Errors
By Christopher G. MacGibbon This thesis develops a new Multi-Horizon Moment Conditions test for evaluating multi-horizon forecast optimality. The test is based on the variances, covariances and autocovariances of optimal forecast errors that should have a non-zero relationship for multi-horizon forecasts. A simulation study is conducted to determine the test’s size and power properties. Also, […]
Determinants of NFL Spread Pricing: Incorporation of Google Search Data Over the Course of the Gambling Week
By Shiv S. Gidumal and Roland D. Muench We investigate the factors that Las Vegas incorporates into opening spreads for NFL matchups. We include a novel proxy measure for gambler sentiment constructed with Google search data. We then investigate whether changes in this proxy are reflected in the closing spreads for NFL matchups and find […]
Google Search Volume Index: Predicting Returns, Volatility and Trading Volume of Tech Stocks
By Rui Xu This paper investigates the efficacy of using Google Search Volume Index (SVI), a publicly available tool Google provides via Google Trends, to predict stock movements within the tech sector. Relative changes in weekly search volume index are recorded from April 2004 to March 2015 and correlated with weekly returns, realized volatility and […]
Conditional Beta Model for Asset Pricing By Sector in the U.S. Equity Markets
By Yuci Zhang In nance, the beta of an investment is a measure of the risk arising from exposure to general market movements as opposed to idiosyncratic factors. Therefore, reliable estimates of stock portfolio betas are essential for many areas in modern nance, including asset pricing, performance evaluation, and risk management. In this paper, we […]
Beta Estimation Using High Frequency Data
By Angela Ryu Using high frequency stock price data in estimating nancial measures often causes serious distortion. It is due to the existence of the market microstructure noise, the lag of the observed price to the underlying value due to market friction. The adverse eect of the noise can be avoided by choosing an appropriate […]
