Could the Kaminsky-Reinhart Model Have Predicted the 2002 Uruguayan Currency and Banking Crises?
by Steven R. Vickers Abstract Because currency and banking crises cause substantial and prolonged disruptions to an economy, economists have long sought ways to predict these events in advance. One recent theory advanced is the “leading indicators” approach of Kaminsky (1998) and Kaminsky and Reinhart (1999). Kaminsky (1998) presents four separate composite indicators, and Kaminsky […]
