Beyond the But-For World: Weak-necessity causal reasoning for model-based counterfactuals in law and economics
by Lilia Qian Abstract Under current standards for scientific evidence defined under Daubert, antitrust models are frequently excluded from legal consideration, but not always for reasons that make them genuinely unreliable. This paper clarifies why antitrust models face difficulties when subjected to methodological scrutiny: the employment of model-based counterfactual arguments under an epistemically defective ‘but-for’ […]
Prediction in Economics: a Case Study of Economists’ Views on the 2008 Financial Crisis
By Weiran Zeng Prediction in economics is the focal point of debate for the future of economics, ever since economists were burdened with the failure to “predict” the 2008 Financial Crisis. This paper discusses positions held by philosophers and economic methodologists regarding what kinds of predictions there are and creates a taxonomy of prediction. Through […]
Oil Price Shocks and the Monetary Policy
By Ying-te Huang Essentially all US recessions have been preceded by oil price shocks and subsequently tighter monetary policies. (Bernanke, Gertler and Watson, 1997). Whereas some scholars, including Herrera and Hamilton (2001) claimed that such oil price shocks contributed to the recession that followed, others, including, Bernanke et al. (1997), believed that the Fed‘s endogenous […]
Causal Inference and Understanding Causal Structure
By Alex Wang This thesis aims to show that explicit understanding of possible causal structures often aids in inferring the true causes from data. This is done by first understanding that causes are chains of counterfactual dependence. Insofar as experiments, active or natural are not perfect, data can easily support false counterfactuals. Even those tools […]
