In the Shadow of War: Assessing Conflict-Driven Disruptions in the Kyrgyzstan-Russia Labor Pipeline via a Gradient Boosting Approach to Nowcasting
by Michelle K. Schultze Abstract Kyrgyzstan, where remittances made up 30% of GDP before the Russo-Ukraine war, is central to understanding Russia–Central Asia labor migration. Wartime trends, however, are obscured by informality and limited Russian data. This study introduces a novel “nowcasting” method using XGBoost and Yandex Wordstat, a Russian search query database largely overlooked […]
Directing Development: Do One-Way Roads Inhibit Downtown Development? A Case Study of Hickory, North Carolina
by Adeleine Geitner Abstract In cities across the United States, residents and policymakers have passed measures to increase accessibility and walkability as a strategy for revitalizing disinvested downtowns. Alongside many of these measures, one-way roads have been reverted to two-way traffic due to their observed hindrance on walkability and pedestrian safety. In Hickory, North Carolina, […]
Illuminating the Economic Costs of Conflict: A Night Light Analysis of the Sri Lankan Civil War
by Nicholas Kiran Wijesekera Abstract This paper investigates the economic consequences of the Sri Lankan Civil War (1983-2009) by using event-based data on civilian and combatant fatalities in addition to night light imagery as a proxy for economic activity. By looking at regional economic activity across the island of Sri Lanka, this paper seeks to […]
Subprime’s Long shadow: Understanding subprime lending’s role in the St. Louis vacancy crisis
by Glen David Morgenstern Abstract Using loan-level data, this analysis attempts to connect the events of the subprime home loan boom to the current vacancy crisis in St. Louis, Missouri. Borrowers in Black areas in the north of St. Louis City and St. Louis County received subprime home loans at higher rates during the subprime […]
Economic Effects of the War in Donbas: Nightlights and the Ukrainian fight for freedom
Paper available to internal Duke affiliates only upon request. Professor Charles Becker, Faculty Advisor Professor Grace Kim, Faculty Advisor JEL Codes: F51; H56; O52; N44 View Data
The Russian Maternity Capital Policy: Two Models
by Jackson Cooksey Abstract Between 1991 and 2007 the Russian Federation experienced a decrease in population and a drop in total fertility rate below population replacement levels. In 2007 the government, citing the importance of forestalling this decline, implemented the Russian Maternity Capital Policy, a one-time subsidy to those families who have a second or […]
Is Affordable Housing Moving Mobile? Analyzing the Impact of COVID-19 on Demand for Manufactured Housing
by Jair Coleridge Soman Alleyne Abstract As demand for affordable housing continues to increase in America, manufactured homes provide a private solution to this problem. Research has shown that manufactured home prices are largely dependent on the price of local housing substitutes as well as other geographic hedonic factors. This paper looks at the impact […]
The Impact of Conflict on Economic Activity: Night Lights and the Bosnian Civil War
by Stephanie Dodd Abstract The tendency of violent conflict to suppress economic activity is well documented in the civil war economic literature. However, differential consequences resulting from distinct characteristics of conflicts have not been rigorously studied. Utilizing new conflict data on the 1992-1995 Bosnian civil war from Becker, Devine, Dogo, and Margolin (2018) and DSMP-OLS […]
Myocardial Infarction, Health Behavior, and the Grossman Model
by Emma Mehlhop Abstract This paper contributes an empirical test of Michael Grossman’s model of the demand for health and a novel application of the model to myocardial infarction (MI) incidence. Using data from the University of Michigan’s Health and Retirement Study (HRS), I test Grossman’s assumptions regarding the effects of hourly wage, sex, educational […]
The Impact of Agglomeration Externalities on Product Innovation Output in Chinese Industrial Firms
By Cindy Feng Agglomeration externalities is defined as the economic benefits from concentrating firms, housing, and output. This study investigates the impact of agglomeration externalities of industrial firms on product innovation output in China. In the research, I specified the impact of agglomeration into three types: Marshallian or localization externalities, defined as the impact of […]
