A new modelling study published in the Lancet on May 12^th estimates the indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak on maternal and under-5 child deaths resulting from the potential collapse of healthcare systems and limited access to food. In this research, three hypothetical scenarios were modelled, where essential maternal and child health interventions were reduced from 9.8%- 51.9% and the prevalence of wasting, gradual loss of weight, was increased by 10%-50%. Using the Lives Saved Tool, additional maternal and under-5 child deaths were estimated in 118 low-income and middle-income countries for a single month and then extrapolated for an additional 3, 6, and 12 months.  

·      In the least severe scenario (maximum coverage reduction of 18.5% and wasting increase of 10%), an additional 253,000 child deaths and 12,200 maternal deaths were estimated over the period of 6 months. 

·      While in the most severe scenario (maximum coverage reduction of 51.9% and wasting increase of 50%), over the same 6 months, an additional 1,157,000 child deaths and 56,700 maternal deaths are expected. 

Based upon all three different scenarios, the global reduction in childbirth coverage could result in a 60% increase in maternal deaths. Even though the research is based on tentative assumptions and represents a wide range of potential scenarios, it shows the need for policy makers around the world to establish guidelines and allocate needed resources as soon as possible in order to prevent the most severe scenarios.