How much of a difference does community-wide social distancing make for SARS-CoV-2? 

Random or homogenous mixing between people does not reflect reality.  Assuming that it did, how much of a difference does social distancing make?  Using the population of Durham County, NC, if there were 400 diagnosed cases of active COVID-19 and 5 undiagnosed infections for each of those, this graphic shows how many infections would be expected one day later with a secondary attack rate of 2.5%, a range of average contacts per person, and a range of social distancing practiced.  Find the calculator here:


James Moody, Dana K. Pasquale



DNAC hosts seminars regularly throughout the academic year. These events highlight cutting edge research from nationally and internationally renowned scholars and serves as a forum for interdisciplinary exchange.

There are no upcoming seminars at this time.


Social Networks And Health: It’s Who You Know

Every office has experienced it. One person contracts a cold, and before you know it the entire group is coughing and reaching for the tissues. Our social connections have incredible implications for our health, and not just because they shape the spread of communicable diseases like the common cold, the flu or even HIV.


Sparked by the confluence of a rapid rise in network techniques across the social and physical sciences, the Duke Network Analysis Center seeks to crystallize the latent talent in this area at Duke and around the triangle to build a world-premier source for cutting edge network studies. The rise of network science over the last 10 to 15 years is predicated on building scientific insight by modeling the complex patterns of connections that link primary elements to each other. The range of such work is exceedingly broad, since the unifying network abstraction is virtually content free. Thus, social network studies add relational context to our understandings of human behavior in areas as diverse as health, culture, organizations, science or politics. Similar tools are used to great advantage in biology, physics, and ecology to name just a few.