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Dark Horse Team 1: Serbia
If there is one team from this group of traditional underdogs that has a legitimate chance to make some noise this summer in Russia, it’s the Serbians. Not only is the team filled with potential superstars at every part of the pitch, but also their opponents in the group stage are beatable. Looking to the three group stage games ahead of them, let’s map out Serbia’s path to the knockout rounds.
Game 1: Costa Rica – June 17, Cosmos Arena, Russia
Costa Rica was the darlings of 2014, winning the Group of Death and making the quarterfinals. This year’s edition of the Ticos is a bit older, though, and will be hard pressed to survive the group stage again. The Serbians should overmatch Costa Rica in midfield, and none of Costa Rica’s attackers possess the playmaking ability to seriously threaten Serbia’s defense outside the counter attack. That being said, the Costa Rican defense is strong and headlined by Real Madrid keeper Keylor Navas. Navas has grown into a world-class goalie at the Spanish capital and has the ability to keep Costa Rica in any game. Thus, I really think that this game will hinge on the finishing ability of Serbian striker Alexander Mitrović. Mitrović has had an up and down career since moving to England, but if he can bring his A-game, I think Serbia will win the match. Prediction: Serbia 1 – Costa Rica 0
Game 2: Switzerland – June 22, Krestovsky Stadium, St. Petersburg
Though qualifying for most of the major tournaments in recent memory, it wouldn’t be unreasonable to say this Swiss team is the worst of any to qualify from UEFA. Without a real goal scoring threat Switzerland only beat a lowly Northern Ireland squad 1-0 over two legs to qualify for Russia. Though they offer some interesting matchups for the Serbians in midfield with Granit Xhaka, Blerim Dzemaili, and Valon Behrami bringing strength and guile to compete with Matić and Milinković-Savić. However, don’t be surprised when Xhaka receives a red card for a reckless tackle, effectively sinking his team’s chances. Prediction: Serbia 3 – Switzerland 0
Game 3: Brazil – June 27, Otkritie Stadium, Moscow
Two games into the tournament, and the Serbians will have likely already qualified for the knockout rounds, setting up this match against Brazil to decide who will win the group. The Brazilians are going into the tournament as one of the favorites, and so should expect to win this game, but the Serbians will not go down easily. Ivanovic and Kolarov, who I expect to be instrumental in winning the first two games, will fight hard against Brazil but ultimately succumb to an attacking onslaught far greater than any they have seen all tournament. Neymar, Firmino, and Co. won’t get their first goal until the second half, but they’ll end up scoring three and coasting to first place in the group. Serbia will still move on, though, and even grab a late consolation to give them confidence moving forward. Prediction: Brazil 3 – Serbia 1
If this scenario holds up, Serbia faces a likely matchup against Germany in the first knockout round. Though definitely the underdog, the Serbians shouldn’t go into the match scared, and if they can get past the Germans, they can get past any team in the tournament.
Dark Horse Team 2: Australia
Group C, containing France, Peru, Denmark, and Australia, is the perfect group for an underdog team to emerge. France is obviously a global powerhouse and heavy favorites in this group, but it will be an all-out battle for 2nd place between 3 strong teams.
France has one of the most powerful teams on paper, featuring world class players Antoine Griezmann, Paul Pogba, Olivier Giroud, Kylan Mbappe, Ousamne Dembele, Thomas Lemar, and N’Golo Kante. Their manager Didier Deschamps lead them to the 2016 Euro Cup Finals where they lost a very close match to Portugal, but nonetheless showed their immense talent in reaching that point. They dominated their World Cup qualifying group and finished 1st place over Sweden and the Netherlands. It is very likely that France finish 3-0 in Group C and make a run deep in the later stages of the World Cup.
Peru was shaky in the qualifiers and just barely passed Chile on goal differential to make it to the play-off spot, in which they play a team from the Oceania region for a spot in the tournament. In the play-off, they tied New Zealand 0-0, and then defeated them 2-0 in the second leg to clinch the spot. This World Cup will end a whopping 36-year World Cup drought for Peru, so they are undoubtedly excited for the chance to play and they will be fighting their hardest each game. The Peru team features players from various South American and Mexican leagues.
Denmark has made a remarkable turn around after failing to qualify for the 2014 World Cup. Lead by star player Christian Eriksen, Denmark placed 2nd in their qualifier group and dominated Ireland with an aggregate score of 5-1 in the play-off to win their spot in the World Cup. Denmark are now on an 11-game undefeated streak featuring impressive wins over Chile and Montenegro. Going into this world cup, Denmark have a solid squad from various European leagues and will look to Christian Eriksen to make the difference in their close matches.
Australia stand in a similar position as far as the qualifiers go; Australia finished 3rd in their group behind Saudi Arabia and Japan, and just barely beat Syria and then Honduras to qualify for the tournament. Their squad features star players Tim Cahill, who netted an impressive 11 goals in the qualifiers, and Mile Jedinak, who scored a hat trick against Honduras in the final qualifier play-off. Manager Van Marwijk is experienced in the World Cup setting, as he lead the Netherlands to a world cup final in 2010, and he has high hopes for this years Australia team. Australia has been inconsistent in their recent matches, featuring a 0-0 draw to a strong Colombia team, but an upsetting 1-4 loss to Norway as well. Australia is known for the acrobatic goals and wild upsets so it will be exciting to see what they bring to Russia.
Predictions:
France 3 – 0 Australia
Unfortunately, Australia will be France’s first victim. Although France has the potential to get complacent in the later games of the group, Australia will face them right out of the gate and take a full-force beating from the world class team. France will dominate possession and surely pound some shots into the back of the net.
Denmark 0 – 1 Australia
Denmark have struggled with creativity up front, relying heavily on Eriksen for their goals. Australia have a strong defensive force to neutralize that threat, and a very strong attacking presence with Cahill. Australia is a worse team on paper, but I think their physicality and knack for creating unexpected results will put them ahead in this matchup.
Australia 1 – 1 Peru
This match will be the most hard-fought in the group. Peru is aching to prove themselves on a global setting after their extremely long hiatus, and their team features extremely physical players. Australia, however, will never back down from a challenge, and they are not afraid to play from behind. I predict that in a very even and hard-fought match with a lot of attacking chances, the game will end in a draw.
With these results, Australia would leave the group stage and enter the round of 16 for the second time ever. That would likely place Australia against Argentina and Lionel Messi in the first game of the knockout stage, and although that game would be incredibly difficult for the Socceroos, it would surely be exciting to see a run from these flashy underdogs.
How to Cite this Article:
“2018 World Cup Underdogs: Dark Horses,” Written by Jack Bloomfeld, David Duquette (2018). World Cup 2018 Guide, Soccer Politics Blog, Duke University, https://sites.duke.edu/wcwp/tournament-guides/mens-world-cup-2018-guide/2018-world-cup-underdogs/dark-horses/ (accessed on (date)).
Written by David Duquette and Jack Bloomfeld
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