Five days ago, before the September qualifying games in the CONCACAF region, soccer fans everywhere were fairly confident that no matter how each of the last six teams finished their last four games, Mexico would easily qualify for the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. Either Mexico would finish as one of the top three teams in the region, or they would settle for fourth and play a one game playoff against New Zealand from the Oceania region, which they would be heavily favored in. Jumping forward to the present, here’s how the CONCACAF standings look:
| Country | MP | W | L | D | GF | GA | GD | Pts. |
| USA* | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 16 |
| Costa Rica* | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 15 |
| Honduras | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 11 |
| Panama | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 8 |
| Mexico | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 8 |
| Jamaica | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 4 |
With the loss to the United States that occurred a few hours ago, Mexico has now fallen into a tie for fourth place with Panama in the CONCACAF World Cup qualifying standings. Even worse, Mexico is currently losing the tie breaker to Panama due to the difference in the amount of goals scored by each team in the fourth round of qualifying (Panama: 7, Mexico: 4). So Mexico is actually in 5th place out of a total of 6 teams. True there are still two games left, and yes Mexico is only 3 points (1 win) behind the third place Honduras, but I’m still not inspired by Mexico’s recent play to be confident enough to predict that they will finish in the top three, finish fourth and then beat New Zealand, or even finish in the top four of this region.
There are three main reasons for why I believe Mexico is going to have a tough time qualifying for the 2014 World Cup:
1.) Recent firing of head coach
2.) Lack of wins in 4th round
3.) Lack of passion
1.) The firing of their past head coach Jose Manuel de la Torre was probably much overdue, but the fact that this decision occurred with only three qualifying games left can not be good for the team. Although Luis Fernando Tena, a previous assistant, has been named the interim coach, the team currently is going through an identity crisis. Tena is unsure whether to continue following Torre’s previous gameplan or to make alterations. Either way, I’m guessing that the team is fairly confused on what Tena’s plan is and may actually lack confidence in Tena’s ability to lead the team. Even though Tena’s confidence has not faded away, his lack of experience with the national team may be Mexico’s downfall.
2.) From looking at the FIFA world rankings of the teams in the CONCACAF region, it appears on paper as Mexico should be fairly dominant in these qualifying games. However, these games are played on the field as Mexico is not living up to expectations. Sure Mexico isn’t actually losing the majority of these games, but the problem is, Mexico isn’t winning enough games. Through the first eight games, Mexico has only won one game, which was against Jamaica. Mexico is currently ranked 20th in the world, yet they have tied and lost to the 43rd ranked team (Honduras), tied the 40th ranked team (Panama), tied the 42nd ranked team (Costa Rica), and tied the 76th ranked team (Jamaica). Although they have two very winnable games left (vs. Panama and @ Costa Rica), there streak of not winning these types of matches is up against them. Two more ties, which is fairly probable at this point, and Mexico is certainly not qualifying for the World Cup.
3.) Which brings me to my last point. Mexico’s passion on the field is almost non-existent. It almost appears as if the team is solely going through the motions. This lack of enthusiasm limits the amount of energy on the field, thus limiting the amount of quality play by the Mexican team. Mexico hasn’t looked like the intimating team that dominates CONCACAF region year after year. If this low quality of play keeps up, Mexico will at best tie their last two games, causing them to watch the 2014 World Cup at home.
