A National Face Mask Law Could End the Pandemic

How do I know this? Because I read an article in the April 2020 issue of the Atlantic Monthly explained the “real reason to wear a mask.”

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/04/dont-wear-mask-yourself/610336/

Medical workers use them and other PPE to avoid ingress, transmission of outside particle to the wearer. However, individuals should wear masks to prevent egress. A key transmission route of COVID-19 is via droplets that fly out of our mouths when we cough, sneeze or even just speak. The purpose of wearing a mask is to avoid you transmitting the virus to others around us.

To develop this article, the magazine assembled an interdisciplinary team of 19 experts and looked at a range of mathematical models and other research. They wrote a scientific paper that was published online

https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202004.0203/v1

The conclusion was that if 80% of people wore masks that were 60% efficient (easily achievable with cloth masks) the basic reproduction number R0 for the epidemic would be < 1 and the epidemic would die out. A graphic shows that possible combinations of mask wearing percentages and mask efficiencies that would achieve this goal.

I admit that the time scale over which things will happen is somewhat of a guess. Not much reduction will be seen in the first week since many infected people have yet to show symptoms. As the graphic shows the reduction will depend on the percent of people complying with the order and the quality of face masks, which should be much better now than when the article was initially published. On the other hand large numbers of people congregating in bars without wearing face masks could negate the effort.

The effectiveness of masks in containing the virus is not just a theoretical result. There are a number of spectacular examples of success. In Hong Kong only four deaths due to COVID-19 have been recorded since the beginning of the pandemic. Hong Kong health authorities credit their citizens’ near universal mask-wearing as a key factor. Similarly, Taiwan ramped up mask production early on and distributed masks to the population, mandating their use in public transit and recommending their use in public places, a suggestion that was been widely complied with. Their death toll has been 6, and the schools have been open since early February.

While other countries have been smart, the US has not. Thanks in no small part to Trump’s decision to not wear a mask and to have large rallies where very few people wore them, the issue has become politicized. Recently the governor of Georgia sued the mayor of Atlanta to stop her from imposing a mask order. Each weekend in Raleigh, hundreds of young people crowd into restaurants and bars on Glendale South and there is not a mask in sight, a situation that occurs in many parts of the country. This behavior occurs because of the perception that young people rarely get sick and if they do get infected the symptoms are mild. However, in recent weeks 1/3 of the new infected have been under the age of 30.

As Dr. Fauci has Said when Trump has allowed him to be on TV, large gatherings in which face masks are not worn can lead to transmission of the virus from one asymptomatic person to another. It is difficult to determine the extent to which this occurs, but contact tracing data from North Carolina shows that 50% of symptomatic cases are caused by contact with an asymptomatic individual. Another sign of the invisible epidemic is that the CDC estimates that there have been 10 times as many cases as those that have been verified by a COVID-19 test.

Trump has recently worn a mask, and at his corona virus briefing on Tuesday July 21, uttered the words that everyone should wear a mask when they are in a situation where social distancing is impossible. The history of pandemic in America shows that people will not voluntarily do the right thing. It must be mandatory. The president could dramatically improve his chances of being re-elected by signing an executive order to make mask mandatory.

I hate to point the president to a road to re-election, but I do not want to see 90,000 more people die. The IHME web site

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

projects 224,500 deaths by election day, while the CDC data shows that 140,000 have occurred as of July 21. To get re-elected, Trump must first admit stop lying about the pandemic. The US has 5% of the world’s population but the fraction of deaths that have occurred here is 140,000/617,000 = 22.7%, more than 4 times as many as a typical country. It does not have the lowest death rate in the world.

The US cannot reopen its economy or send students back to school five days a week with a pandemic raging in the streets. The crisis needs to be stopped now. It seems unlikely that sttes will go back into lockdown, so making masks mandatory is our only hope. If hospitalizations continue to spiral out of control (and they are NOT caused by our high level of testing) then the death toll could easily go higher than projected. In April when stay at home orders and other control measures were in place, the IHME projected death toll was roughly 70,000. This means that the premature re-opening of the economy has cost 150,000 lives. If we had followed the lead of Europe and dramatically reduce the number of cases before opening up the country things would be much better now but that opportunity is gone. We need to act now to prevent a complete disaster.

 

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