A 0-1 law for eclipses

A 0-1 law in probability is a result that says in certain situations, for example, when we consider the asymptotic behavior of sums of independent and independently distributed random variables or the short time behavior of Brownian motion, then all events are trivial, i.e., have probability 0 or 1.

Yesterday I learned that law applies to eclipses. For months we have been told that on August 21, 2017 in Durham there would be solar eclipse that will at its peak at 2:45PM it will cover 93% of the sun. That turns out to be about as exciting as being 93% pregnant or have 93% of a proof. The shade of the trees in our front yard seemed a little darker but the sky never did. Turns out that having 7% of the sun exposed is more than enough to be able to see well.

About a month ago I ordered “eclipse glasses” from Amazon, so I could look at the sun without burning my retinas. However, as I learned about a week ago, the glasses were advertised as  ISO 12312-2 certified, but they were not. Amazon was the one who told me and they sent me a refund, but I ended up without glasses. On the big day I made myself a pinhole viewer by sticking the point of a pencil through a note card. When I held it out I did see a light spot on the ground that looked like a circle with a piece missing, but then I wondered if it was due to the fact that my hole was not round. However, soon after that moment of doubt, I noticed that there were a large number of crescent shaped light objects on the ground. In short, the overlaps between leaves in the trees that made hundreds of pinhole cameras. For the long version see:


For a few minutes I wandered around looking at the light shapes on my driveway and in the street in front of my house before I got bored and went in, leaving my neighbors to wonder no doubt what I was doing wandering around in the street holding my smart phone.

In summary, when 2024 rolls around and the eclipse goes from Texas to Maine, either get yourself to where the eclipse is total or take off for Myrtle Beach where the moon will not block the sun and hotel rooms will be discounted.

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