Duke MINERVA

Phase I of the project included database building, analysis, and mapping in order to examine the MENA food and energy GVCs in detail and develop a food security ranking scheme.  This encompassed compiling data on socioeconomic factors, demographics, agriculture, ports, trading, and more for each MENA country.  Additionally, import and export commodity flows were analyzed as food and energy were traded between MENA and the rest of the world.  All data was then dynamically linked to GIS to allow for mapping and visualization, which aided in further food security analysis and evaluation of various ranking schemes.  Details of the data compilation and map creation are below.

Database Compilation and Analysis:

Databases have been created for all countries in the MENA region.  The data cover grains (all), rice, corn, wheat, crude, petroleum products, and natural gas.  Table 1 lists the data compiled, the years for which they were compiled, and the source.

Table 1:  List of Data Compiled into the MENA Food and Energy Security Database

*Some years may contain missing values for some countries

From the above data, the following metrics were calculated for all food and energy commodities:  consumption per capita, import dependency (with and without stocks), export dependency, importance of exports ($ as % of GDP), grain-energy fraction and additional food-energy security metrics.  Details on each metric are listed, below.

Food Metrics

• Consumption (tons) = Production + Imports – Exports – Stocks
• Consumption per Capita (lbs/person) = Consumption/Population
• Import Dependency (%) = (Imports – Exports)/Consumption

Energy Metrics

• Consumption (barrels/MMBtu/kWh) = Production + Imports – Exports
• Consumption per Capita (unit/person) = Consumption/Population
• Import Dependency (%) = (Imports – Exports)/Consumption
• Energy Importance (%) = Annual Exports/Annual World Consumption
• Energy Export Fraction (%) = Energy Export Value/Total Export Value
• Energy Export Dependence (%) = Energy Export Value/GDP

Food & Energy Combined Metrics

Grain-for-Energy Fraction (%) = Grain Net Import Value/Energy Export Value

Data can be downloaded by MINERVA members via the Data Download page.  A password is required and is available by contacting the webmaster (dmh22@duke.edu).

Mapping:

The entirety of the data available in the databases was combined into a master file and data for the most recent year was linked to GIS and mapped.  The shapefiles listed in the Table 2 were also compiled for each MENA country.

Table 2 – GIS Shapefiles for each MENA Country

Additional layers were created for six countries of focus – Syria, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iran, United Arab Emirates, and Qatar.  These layers can be seen in Table 3.

Table 3 – GIS Shapefiles for six countries of focus

Data from the master database were added to the files in Table 2 and 3 for 2011.   Additionally, some of the layers were further edited and analyzed. The world shipping network layer was modified to show the quantity of rice, corn, and wheat being imported and exported along major shipping routes between MENA countries and the rest of the world.  Routes were weighted by the amount of goods traveling along a particular path in order to highlight high traffic routes and potential bottleneck areas.  The routes start and end at major port terminals, or largest cities, for each respective commodity.

Radial flow charts were also created to show the disbursement of food and energy commodities.  The flows are also weighted by the amount of goods being imported or exported between MENA countries and other countries.  Arrowhead lines note the direction of the flow.

Data can be downloaded by MINERVA members via the Data Download page.  A password is required and is available by contacting the webmaster (dmh22@duke.edu).

An interactive web application was built using ArcGIS online and is available for public viewing on the interactive map page.  The interactive app includes a base map of the world and MENA region as well as the layers listed in Tables 1 and 2.  Users can interact with the data entirely online without needing to download anything or have access to an ArcGIS license.