Soll, J. B., Palley, A. B., Klayman, J., & Moore, D. A. (in press). Overconfidence in probability distributions: People know they don’t know but they don’t know what to do about it. Management Science. SSRN
Fath, S., Larrick, R. P., & Soll, J. B. (in press). Encouraging self-blinding in hiring. Behavioral Science & Policy.
Lawson, M. A., Larrick, R. P., & Soll, J. B. (2022). When and why people perform mindless math. Judgment and Decision Making, 17 (6), 1208-1228. Open Access
Soll, J. B., Palley, A. B., Rader, C. A. (2022). The bad thing about good advice: Understanding when and how advice exacerbates overconfidence. Management Science, 68 (4) 2377-3174. DOI
Fath, S., Larrick, R. P., Soll, J. B (2022). Blinding curiosity: Exploring preferences for “blinding” one’s own judgment. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 170, 104135 DOI
Fath, S., Larrick, R. P., Soll, J. B., & Zhu, S. (2021). Putting on blinders to size people up. MIT Sloan Management Review. LINK
Lawson, M. A., Larrick, R. P., & Soll, J. B. (2020). Comparing fast thinking and slow thinking: The relative benefits of interventions, individual differences, and inferential rules. Judgment and Decision Making, 15 (5), 660-684. Open Access
Palley, A. B., Soll, J. B. (2019). Extracting the Wisdom of Crowds When Information is Shared. Management Science, 65, 2291-2309. DOI SSRN
- Winner, Decision Analysis Publication Award, 2021
Rader, C. A., Larrick, R. P., & Soll, J. B. (2017) Advice as a form of social influence: Informational goals and the consequences for accuracy. Social and Personality Psychology Compass, 11, e12329. DOI
Soll, J. B. and Milkman, K. L. & Payne, J. W., A User’s Guide to Debiasing (2016). Wiley-Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making. G. Keren and G. Wu (Eds.). SSRN
Rader, C. A., Soll, J. B., & Larrick, R. P. (2015) Pushing away from representative advice: Advice taking, Anchoring, and Adjustment. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 130, 26-43. DOI
Larrick, R. P., Soll, J. B., & Keeney, R. L. (2015). Designing better energy metrics for consumers. Behavioral Science & Policy, 1, 63-76. DOI
Soll, J. B., Milkman, K. L., & Payne, J. W. (2015). Outsmart your own biases. Harvard Business Review, 93, 65-71. LINK
Mannes, A. E., Soll, J. B., & Larrick, R. P. (2014). The wisdom of select crowds. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 107, 276-299. DOI
Soll, J. B., Keeney, R. L., & Larrick, R. P. (2013) Consumer misunderstanding of credit card use, payments, and debt: Causes and solutions. Journal of Public Policy and Marketing, 32, 66-81. DOI
Larrick, R. P., Mannes, A. E., & Soll, J. B. (2012). The social psychology of the wisdom of crowds. In J. I. Krueger (Ed.), Frontiers of Social Psychology: Social Psychology and Decision Making. Philadelphia: Psychology Press.
See, K. E., Morrison, E. W., Rothman, N. B, & Soll, J. B. (2011). The detrimental effects of power on confidence, advice taking, and accuracy. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 116, 272-285. DOI
Soll, J. B., & Mannes, A. E. (2011). Judgmental aggregation strategies depend on whether the self is involved. International Journal of Forecasting, 27, 81-102. DOI
Feiler, D. C., & Soll, J. B. (2010). A blind spot in driving decisions: How neglecting costs puts us in overdrive. Climatic Change, 98, 285-290. DOI
Soll, J. B., & Larrick, R. P. (2009). Strategies for revising judgment: How (and how well) people use others’ opinions. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 35, 780-805. DOI
Larrick, R. P., & Soll, J. B. (2008). The MPG illusion. Science, 320, 1593-1594. DOI. This website has additional information and access to a subscription-free version of this article.
Larrick, R. P., Burson, K. A., & Soll, J. B. (2007) Social comparison and confidence: When thinking you’re better than average predicts overconfidence (and when it does not). Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 102, 76-94. DOI
Larrick, R. P., & Soll, J. B. (2006) Intuitions about combining opinions: Misappreciation of the averaging principle. Management Science, 52, 111-127. DOI
Klayman, J., Soll, J. B., Juslin, P., & Winman, A. (2006). Subjective confidence and the sampling of knowledge. In K. Fiedler & P. Juslin (Eds.). In the Beginning there is a Sample: Information Sampling as a Key to Understanding Adaptive Cognition (pp.153-182). Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
Soll, J. B. & Klayman, J. (2004). Overconfidence in interval estimates. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 30, 299-314. DOI
Soll, J. B. (1999). Intuitive theories of information: Beliefs about the value of redundancy. Cognitive Psychology, 38, 317-346. DOI
Klayman, J., Soll, J. B., González-Vallejo, C., & Barlas, S. (1999). Overconfidence: It depends on how, what, and whom you ask. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 79, 216-247. DOI
Soll, J. B. (1996). Determinants of overconfidence and miscalibration: The roles of random error and ecological structure. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 65, 117-137. DOI
McKenzie, C. R. M. & Soll, J. B. (1996). Which reference class is evoked? Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 19, 34-35. DOI
Heath, C. & Soll, J. B. (1996). Mental budgeting and consumer decisions. Journal of Consumer Research, 23, 40-52. JSTOR
