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Illuminating the Economic Costs of Conflict: A Night Light Analysis of the Sri Lankan Civil War

by Nicholas Kiran Wijesekera

Abstract 

This paper investigates the economic consequences of the Sri Lankan Civil War (1983-2009) by using event-based data on civilian and combatant fatalities in addition to night light imagery as a proxy for economic activity. By looking at regional economic activity across the island of Sri Lanka, this paper
seeks to identify how violence led to declines or undershoots of economic activity in the areas in which it was most prevalent. The use of night light data gives a
hyper-localized proxy measurement of this activity for each year of the war. The investigation finds that government and rebel deaths have strong, negative effects on economic activity, and that these effects spill over across time and space. Additionally, the manner in which civilian deaths occur is an important determinant of their subsequent economic impact. The paper offers new findings on the economic legacy of the Sri Lankan Civil War and extends existing work on the use of night light data to measure economic activity during conflict.

Charles Becker, Faculty Advisor
Michelle Connolly, Faculty Advisor

JEL Codes: H56, N45, O53

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The Impact of a Fixed Exchange Rate Regime on Growth and Volatility in an Oil-­‐‑dependent Economy

By Shihab Osman Malik and Faisal Bandar Alsaadi 

This study examines the relationship between the fixed exchange rate regime, economic growth, and output volatility in oil-­‐‑producing Saudi Arabia over the post-­‐‑Bretton Woods period (1973–2016). We assess the implications of the current exchange rate regime on macroeconomic and growth performance, and evaluate its sustainability in the context of oil-­‐‑dependency and market dynamics. We develop and employ a theoretical framework and empirical specification based on previous literature to find that for Saudi Arabia, the fix is associated with faster growth and lower output volatility. We believe the result is primarily driven by the credibility of the fix in terms of establishing a strong nominal anchor and monetary policy framework.

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Advisor: Lori Leachman | JEL Codes: E42, F31, F36, F41, O53

Questions?

Undergraduate Program Assistant
Matthew Eggleston
dus_asst@econ.duke.edu

Director of the Honors Program
Michelle P. Connolly
michelle.connolly@duke.edu