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Distribution of Risk and Return in Variations of Volatility Arbitrage

by Maksym Kosachevskyy

The effectiveness of volatility arbitrage has been a source of debate for researchers. On one hand, some have found the strategy to be immensely profitable, indicating a potential structural mispricing in the options market. Other researchers have claimed these profits arise from hidden risk in the form of higher distribution moments like kurtosis and skewness or that the strategy is highly susceptible to jump risk. In this paper, I examine the risk and return of a set of options volatility arbitrage strategies over the last 6 years to determine the magnitude of a possible mispricing. I construct a portfolio of long straddles using the options in the decile with the greatest positive IV-HV difference and a portfolio of short straddles using the options in the decile with the greatest negative difference. I then calculate the Compound Annual Growth Rate and standard deviation of monthly and weekly strategies, find the optimal Sharpe ratio, and adjust for potential liquidity issues. I find that the combined monthly portfolio can be a strong performer if properly hedged but that only the long portfolio is necessary in the weekly strategy. Both weekly and monthly portfolios can highly effective investments if risk is managed correctly.

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Advisors: Professor Jia Li, Professor Kent Kimbrough | JEL Codes: G11, G13, G14

Word-of-Mouth Effects in the Holdings and Trading Activities among Canadian Mutual Fund Managers

By Chang Liu

The study tests the word-of-mouth effects among mutual fund managers in Canada with methodology based on a previous study (Hong et al., 2005), with multiple modifications to it such as the method to locate the mutual fund managers. The results confirm the original findings yet with unexpected outcomes. This study demonstrates smaller word-of-mouth effects compared to the original study and reverse word-of-mouth effects in the largest financial city of Canada. The possible interpretations are further discussed in detail, among which a dynamic model of word-of-mouths effects and product differentiation is introduced. The study also discusses the market structure’s possible implications on such dynamic models.

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Advisor: Jia Li | JEL Codes: G02, G15, G20, G21 | Tagged: Word-of-Mouth, Product Differentiation, Herding Behavior

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