By Ryan Jones Hastings
Abstract
When choosing whether to visit venues like stores and restaurants during the
COVID-19 pandemic, individuals faced trade-offs between movement and mortality
risk. This paper analyzes age-specific responsiveness to infection-related mortality
risk in the Philadelphia metropolitan area from March through December 2020.
First, we develop a theoretical model that characterizes potential sources of
heterogeneity in the decisions of individuals choosing how much to move. Next,
we use data on the health outcomes of COVID-19 patients to estimate fatality
rates for different demographic groups. Finally, we use a panel of cell phone data
tracking visits to venues before and during the pandemic along with a revealed
preference approach to estimate an empirical model that relates age to movement
decisions. Our results suggest that older people’s movements are less sensitive
to mortality risk. Under weak assumptions, this implies that older people have
a lower willingness to pay for marginal reductions in the probability of death.
This finding has implications for the cost-benefit analysis of policies that mitigate
adverse health outcomes, such as pandemic movement restrictions and pollution
remediation, and for the value of statistical life (VSL) literature more broadly.
Professor Christopher Timmins, Faculty Advisor
Professor Michelle Connolly, Faculty Advisor
JEL classification: D81; I12; J17; R2.
