A depiction of the hopelessness and urgency of climate action by artist Vincent J.F. Huang in Tuvalu’s Pavilion at COP 26. Tuvalu is a small island state in the Pacific.

The expectations to deliver urgent climate solutions had never been higher at a COP. COP 26 had arrived after a two-year hiatus in the annual COP sessions due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Never before had the world witnessed a series of climate effects from the worsening climate crisis as we did this summer. From flooding in China and Germany to wildfires in the US and Canadian West, summer 2021 gave us just a glimpse of what the new normal could look like. COP 26 thus arguably carried more responsibility to take meaningful climate action than previous COPs. The renewed public awareness of climate issues presented an opportunity to rally governments. Although there was incremental progress made on a few fronts, COP 26 failed to meet the moment.

A lack of commitment in urgently phasing out fossil fuels, inadequate climate financing, and exclusion of voices from climate-vulnerable communities in the Global South are the biggest disappointments from this COP. The last-minute change by India and China on their commitments to transition away from coal was framed as a larger disappointment. The tearful moment from COP 26 President Alok Sharma captured by media only strengthened this perception. However, the continued failure of rich countries in doing their own part and facilitating the energy transition for developing countries forms the bulk of the problem.

COP 26 failed to provide a near-term path for drastic emission cuts from our current record-breaking emission levels. The urgency of halving emissions by 2030 is critical to avoid catastrophic environmental disasters this century. The pledges made at COP 26 for reductions over the next decade take us down a path of 2.4-degree Celsius warming, per analysis by Climate Action Tracker. With existing policies, we are headed to a disastrous 2.7-degree Celsius warming scenario.

Far-fetched Net Zero goals by major polluters do little to sizably cut emissions by 2030. The diluted language around target dates for fossil fuel transition and capping the level of warming grant immense flexibility to both developed and developing countries to delay their emission reduction goals. Even in the areas of methane reduction and coal-based power transition, touted as successes of this COP, most big polluters didn’t sign the agreements. Only after countries provide their updated NDC (Nationally Determined Contributions) targets at COP 27 in Egypt next year will we fully understand the extent to which COP 26 fell short.

Rich countries failed to deliver on transitioning their own economies and meeting their long-promised commitments on climate financing. The agreement to phase out fossil fuel cars by 2040 was not supported by major economies such as US and Germany. Developed countries left out a proposal to compensate developing countries for loss and damage due to climate-related disasters. The commitment to provide $100 billion/year in adaptation funding starting 2020 to least developed nations has now been delayed by three years to 2023. Without just reparations from rich countries who hold the greatest responsibility for climate change, the developing world will be unprepared to confront the inevitable climate crisis.

—

Written by Indraneel Dharwadkar. The author is an MBA/MPP Candidate at Duke University. He is interested in environmental justice and advancing a just transition through equitable climate financing.