Duke Research Blog

Following the people and events that make up the research community at Duke.

Category: Business/Economics (Page 1 of 6)

Energy Program on Chopping Block, But New Data Suggest It Works

Duke research yields new data about energy efficiency program slated for elimination

Do energy efficiency “audits” really benefit companies over time? An interdisciplinary team of Duke researchers (economist Gale Boyd, statistician Jerome “Jerry” Reiter, and doctoral student Nicole Dalzell) have been tackling this question as it applies to a long-running Department of Energy (DOE) effort that is slated for elimination under President Trump’s proposed budget.

Evaluating a long-running energy efficiency effort

Since 1976, the DOE’s Industrial Assessments Centers (IAC) program has aimed to help small- and medium-sized manufacturers to become more energy-efficient by providing free energy “audits” from universities across the country. (Currently, 28 universities take part, including North Carolina State University.)

Gale Boyd

Gale Boyd is a Duke Economist

The Duke researchers’ project, supported by an Energy Research Seed Fund grant, has yielded a statistically sound new technique for matching publicly available IAC data with confidential plant information collected in the U.S. Census of Manufacturing (CMF).

The team has created a groundbreaking linked database that will be available in the Federal Statistical Research Data Center network for use by other researchers. Currently the database links IAC data from 2007 and confidential plant data from the 2012 CMF, but it can be expanded to include additional years.

The team’s analysis of this linked data indicate that companies participating in the DOE’s IAC program do become more efficient and improve in efficiency ranking over time when compared to peer companies in the same industry. Additional analysis could reveal the characteristics of companies that benefit most and the interventions that are most effective.

Applications for government, industry, utilities, researchers

This data could be used to inform the DOE’s IAC program, if the program is not eliminated.

But the data have other potential applications, too, says Boyd.

Individual companies who took part in the DOE program could discover the relative yields of their own energy efficiency measures: savings over time as well as how their efficiency ranking among peers has shifted.

Researchers, states, and utilities could use the data to identify manufacturing sectors and types of businesses that benefit most from information about energy efficiency measures, the specific measures connected with savings, and non-energy benefits of energy efficiency, e.g. on productivity.

Meanwhile, the probabilistic matching techniques developed as part of the project could help researchers in a range of fields—from public health to education—to build a better understanding of populations by linking data sets in statistically sound ways.

An interdisciplinary team leveraging Duke talent and resources

Boyd—a Duke economist who previously spent two decades doing applied policy evaluation at Argonne National Laboratory—has been using Census data to study energy efficiency and productivity for more than fifteen years. Boyd has co-appointments in Duke’s Social Science Research Institute and Department of Economics. He now directs the Triangle Research Data Center (TRDC), a partnership between the U.S. Census Bureau and Duke University in cooperation with the University of North Carolina and Research Triangle Institute.

The TRDC (located in Gross Hall for Interdisciplinary Innovation) is one of more than 30 locations in the country where researchers can access the confidential micro-data collected by the Federal Statistical System.

Jerry Reiter is a Duke statistician.

Jerry Reiter is a professor in Duke’s Department of Statistical Science, associate director of the Information Initiative at Duke (iiD), and a Duke alumnus (B.S’92). Reiter was dissertation supervisor for Nicole Dalzell, who completed her Ph.D. at Duke this spring and will be an assistant teaching professor in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at Wake Forest University in the fall.

Boyd reports, “The opportunity to work in an interdisciplinary team with Jerry (one of the nation’s leading researchers on imputation and synthetic data) and Nicole (one of Duke’s bright new minds in this field) has opened my eyes a bit about how cavalier some researchers are with respect to uncertainty when we link datasets. Statisticians’ expertise in these areas can help the rest of us do better research, making it as sound and defensible as possible.”

What’s next for the project

The collaboration was made by possible by the Duke University Energy Initiative’s Energy Research Seed Fund, which supports new interdisciplinary research teams to secure preliminary results that can help secure external funding. The grant was co-funded by the Pratt School of Engineering and Information Initiative at Duke (iiD).

Given the potential uses of the team’s results by the private sector (particularly by electric utilities), other funding possibilities are likely to emerge.

Boyd, Reiter, and Dalzell have submitted an article to the journal Energy Policy and are discussing future research application of this data with colleagues in the field of energy efficiency and policy. Their working paper is available as part of the Environmental and Energy Economics Working Paper Series organized by the Energy Initiative and the Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions.

Energy Efficiency Graphic

For more information, contact Gale Boyd: gale.boyd@duke.edu.

Guest Post from Braden Welborn, Duke University Energy Initiative

If the Cancer Doesn’t Kill You, the Drug Prices Might

The medical community is growing alarmed about a creeping malady that can diminish the quality of life for patients in treatment and even shorten their lives.

It’s found everywhere in the United States, but not to the same degree in other developed countries. They’re calling it “Financial Toxicity.”

Yousuf Zafar is an oncologist and health policy researcher.

A cancer diagnosis more than doubles an American’s chance of declaring bankruptcy, Duke medical oncologist  Yousuf Zafar, MD, MHS,  told an audience of nursing faculty and students at a May 10 luncheon lecture sponsored by the Duke Center for Community and Population Health Improvement. And that bankruptcy, in turn, has been shown to decrease survival rates.

In addition to treating cancer patients, Zafar studies access to care and the cost of care at the Duke Cancer Institute, the Sanford School of Public Policy, and the Margolis Center for Health Policy.

Zafar told personal stories of two patients who waved off treatments because of the financial hardship they feared.

Gleevec (Imatinib) is an oral chemotherapy made by Novartis.

One of them had a job with health insurance, but no prescription drug coverage, which put him on the hook for $4,000 in medications to treat his rectal cancer for just a few weeks. Had either the patient or Dr. Zafar brought the topic up, the costs might have been avoided, but they never talked about money, he said.

The other patient passed up another round of treatment for his pancreatic cancer, for fear of the bills his family would be saddled with when he died.

Chemotherapy for cancer would typically cost $100/month in the 1970s, Zafar said. But today that figure can be “ten, or tens, of thousands per month.” (Inflation would make that 1970 dollar about $6, not $600.)

“Pricing in the European Union and the rest of the world is a completely different picture,” he said.  In the US, pricing “simply reflects what the market will bear.”

Another source of the steep climb is the advent of biologic drugs, which are expensive to develop, use and store, but offer more targeted therapy for individual patients. One of the most successful of these is Gleevec (Imatinib) an oral chemotherapy that became 158 percent more expensive from 2007 to 2014, Zafar said.

If you do a Google search for Gleevec, the first thing you find is a Novartis page with the headline “Understand Your Out-Of-Pocket Costs For Gleevec” that includes a link to financial assistance resources.

In the face of outrageous costs and questionable benefits, a treatment team in many cases can help patients find other means of support or alternative treatments to achieve the same end with less financial damage. But they have to have the conversation, Zafar said. He’d like to see Duke’s Cancer Center become the first in the country to be totally transparent about costs, but he acknowledged that it may be a difficult quest.

To help enable those conversations, Zafar developed a mobile app called Pathlight to help patients make more informed decisions and plan better for the financial burden of treatment. For some of the technology used in the project, Zafar has partnered with a software company called Vivor, which has found innovative ways to help patients navigate to financial assistance programs. That part of the project is supported by the NIH’s National Cancer Institute.

Even for people not in treatment, drugs have become more costly. Healthcare premiums rose 182 percent from 1999 to 2013, with workers paying an increasing share of the cost of their own employee health plans.

Is this any way to run a health system?

“I don’t have all the answers – I don’t think anybody does,” Zafar said. “But I think we need to move toward a single-payer system.”

Post by Karl Leif Bates

 

Linking Climate Change, Air Pollution and Public Health

We often view climate change and air pollution as two separate entities. But, the two issues are united by one common driving factor: human emissions. Nicholas School of the Environment Earth Sciences Professor Drew Shindell reminds us how interconnected these issues truly are, and how we must begin viewing them as such to create change.

Shindell argues that climate change and air pollution are often misrepresented. Air pollution is a problem that seems elusive to the individual, and yet it is the

Dr. Shindell with Marcelo Mena (far left), Vice Minister of the Environment of Chile, and Governor Jerry Brown (CA) at the COP21 in Paris.

number one cause of premature death. The problem is often polarized from us, and we forget that we are largely at fault for its increasing effect. We place the blame on the emissions of large corporations, when our own car emissions are just as detrimental. Shindell argues that it is the “othering” of these issues that makes it hard for us feel a need to create change.

But, by clearly linking climate change and air pollution together, and linking those two to human health, Shindell believes we will develop a greater sense of responsibility for our environment. He gives the example of Pakistan, where increased ozone levels due to human emissions have severely decreased the air quality. As a result, there has been a 36% decline wheat and rice production. This dent in Pakistan’s agricultural systems poses a great threat on food security for the entire nation, and could potentially create a wave of health issues.

But policy often blurs the line between air pollution, climate change and human health. Shindell says he doesn’t know of a single jurisdiction that explicitly mentions the scope of negative effects air pollution and climate change can have on our health (stroke, lung cancer, new disease vectors, to name a few). He suggests expanding our metrics and developing a broader-based impact analysis so that humans are well-informed of the interconnectedness of these issues.

Is it easier to blame a big factory for pollution than to look at your own travel habits?

If we included public health in our impact estimates for methane emissions, for example, the cost would be much larger than anticipated. But, Shindell highlights that to bring these emissions down requires a change that is not easy to ask of our energy-dependent, consumer-driven world. Decreasing our meat consumption by 48%, for example, would save us billions of dollars, but to trigger such a change would demand a desire from the public to alter their behavior, which time and time again has proven to be challenging.

At the end of the day, this scientific issue is a largely psychological one. We assume our contributions make a negligible difference, when in reality it is our consumer behavior that will drive the change we wish to see in our environment. But, how are we expected to feel the burden of air pollution on our health, when policy isn’t directly linking the two together? How can we see climate change as an issue that threatens the security of global agricultural systems when legislation fails to draw the two together explicitly? It is here where we must see a change.

Post by Lola Sanchez-Carrion

 

Starting Your Own Business in Social Entrepreneurship? Lessons from Four Founders

Interested in starting your own jazz festival? Or creating hydrogen-rich water to boost your circulation and improve muscle recovery?

These are the accomplishments of Cicely Mitchell and Gail Levy, who were among four inspiring leaders at the evening panel discussion in the Fuqua School of Business this past Wednesday. Excited students and faculty gathered in the Kirby Reading room to learn about the leaders’ unique perspectives as founders of non-profit and for-profit solutions to various social impact and sustainability issues.

socEntrep1

Students and faculty gathered for dinner and networking before the panel discussion.

Organized by the Duke Innovation & Entrepreneurship Initiative and the Center for the Advancement of Social Entrepreneurship (CASE), the panel served to enlighten the audience about the challenges the women have faced and the lessons they learned in starting and scaling their social ventures. Panel moderator Erin Worsham, the Executive Director of CASE, opened the discussion with a few statistics.

In the non-profit sector, women make up 75% of the workforce, but in leadership positions, this ratio drops to 45%. As of 2013 in the for-profit sector, only 2.7% of venture capital investments went to fund companies with a female CEO. While black women own 1.5 million businesses in the U.S., they receive only 0.2% of venture funding. Undoubtedly, Worsham concluded, there is a lot of work to do in terms of women getting funded and represented as leaders.

Erin Worsham opened up the panel with statistics about women in the workforce. Worsham is the Executive Director of the award-winning CASE based at Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business

To commence the discussion, Worsham asked the panelists to speak about the gender discrimination they faced while starting their own companies. Gail Levy, founder of H Factor Water, a health-focused company producing hydrogen-infused water in environmentally friendly packaging, answered with a time she was challenged to a drinking match in order to close a deal. “The lesson I learned is to not go and drink your way into making a deal,” Levy joked. “But more importantly, you need to have grit and tenacity. Let our presence be known, because eventually we will be heard.”

Gail

Gail Levy was the founder of the White House Millennium Green Committee under the Clinton Administration in 1999. She is passionate about advocating for women worldwide and is also the founder of H Factor Water.

Founder of The Art of Cool, a Durham nonprofit promoting music education to Durham-area youth, Cecily Mitchell remarked that she would be charged significantly more money than a male counterpart to work with the same artist.

Cicely Mitchell is co-founder of The Art of Cool, a Durham nonprofit promoting music education to Durham-area youth

Cicely Mitchell is co-founder of The Art of Cool, a Durham nonprofit promoting music education to Durham-area youth

Rebecca Ballard, lawyer and founder of Maven Women, a sustainability-focused fashion company dedicated to making professional wear for women, noted that “we live in a visual world, but we need to start looking at a person’s character rather than solely focusing on how they look.” Based on her experience with her medical real estate development company ACCESS Medical Development, angel investor Stephanie Wilson expanded on the comment, adding that the best thing to do about the prejudice against women is to know that it’s there and fight for it.

image6

Rebecca Ballard told the audience, “The most challenging thing about being a working woman is that appearance is considered ‘relevant.’” She started her career as a public interest lawyer and was previously the Executive Director of Social Impact 360.

I asked the founders to share their experiences in building a successful customer base. Wilson noted that to institute her company, she “determined who was the top real estate agent in our area and sought them out. I discussed my idea with them and asked for their advice on segueing into the market.” She suggested sending handwritten thank you notes to build relationships with your customers.

Stephanie Wilson founded ACCESS Medical Development and is also the co-founder of MillennialsMovingMillions.org.

Stephanie Wilson founded ACCESS Medical Development and is also the co-founder of MillennialsMovingMillions.org.

Mitchell added that The Art of Cool held the first few concerts for relatives and friends, and later partnered up with other small entrepreneurs. “Make sure what you do connects with people enough that they want to go and tell other people about what you’re doing,” she advised.

Cecily Mitchell talked about her experience with The Art of Cool. She handles the booking, contracts, networking, pitching for sponsorships and assisting in writing grants for the company.

Maven Woman founder Rebecca Ballard commented on the importance getting support from women in other sustainable industries, since “you are all driven by the same mission in the social entrepreneurship space.”

Rebecca

Rebecca Ballard is the founder of Maven Women, a sustainability-focused fashion company dedicated on making professional wear for women.

Worsham’s final question for the panel asked for any last pieces of advice. Ballard concluded the conversation with a reason why she started her company: “Social entrepreneurship exists because the status quo is not okay. There are externalities happening and people being treated badly; the status quo doesn’t have to be the way it is.”

From left to right:

Posing with the panelists! From left to right: Anika Radiya-Dixit (author), Gail Levy, Cecily Mitchell, Rebecca Ballard, and Stephanie Wilson.

By Anika Radiya-Dixit

Anika_RD_hed100_2

Economics and Health: The Biases Behind Our Decisions

Eric Finkelstein of the the Duke Graduate Medical School in Singapore studies how economic principles might be used to improve individual healthcare.

At a talk last Friday, Finkelstein, who was selected by Thomson Reuters as one of the world’s most influential scientific minds of 2015, argued that the same biases that affect our economic decisions could also influence our healthcare choices, and that understanding these biases could help motivate individuals to live healthy active lives.

In theory, people should be able to make healthy choices, Finkelstein said. Under the utility maximization model, individuals have the ability to rationalize and recognize the benefits of taking particular actions for themselves. But often we are not rational beings, he said, and there are several “deviations” that steer us away from maximizing our utility.

One of these deviations is the “present bias” preference, which leads us to make decisions in the present that our future self will regret. He discussed a particular experiment in which people are asked to choose what they will eat in one week’s time: a candy bar or an apple. Most choose the apple, but after a week, when they were given the opportunity to reevaluate their choice and change it, most switch to the candy bar.

This experiment shows not only the dynamic, unpredictable nature of our decisions, but also highlights our tendency to overestimate the will power of our “future selves.”

Another interesting bias that prevents us from being rational is our probabilistic assessment bias, which describes our tendency to overestimate the probability of very unlikely events, while underestimating the probability of those that are likely. This bias directly relates to health and our tendency to ignore the possibility of suffering a detrimental health problem like a heart attack, when in reality it’s quite commonplace.

Eric Finkelstein’s research, which focuses on the intersection between economics and global health, has gained him renowned success nationally and abroad. Source: Duke NUS Medical School.

To understand how these biases might influence individuals suddenly diagnosed with a terminal illness, Finkelstein and his medical team in Singapore conducted their own study on healthcare choices. In the experiment, both healthy and sick individuals were asked to identify what treatments they would prioritize if diagnosed with terminal cancer: level of pain, hours of care required, potential to extend life, cost of treatment and location of death.

Most healthy individuals said they would want whatever treatment was cheapest, but showed very little interest in investing in extending their life or selecting where they died. When sick patients were asked the same questions, on the other hand, they valued place of death (home was preferred) and survival time above everything else. Such information indicates just how difficult it is for us to predict where to invest in healthcare for cancer patients.

From this study and several others, Finkelstein concludes that we are not rational beings, but are instead irrational ones that feed off of biases and change our opinions constantly. But, he suggests that through the use of incentives, we can mediate these irrational biases and ultimately improve health outcomes.

 

Post by Lola Sanchez-Carrion

lola_sanchez_carrion_100hed

Walla Scores Grand Prize at 17th Annual Start-Up Challenge

The finalists of Duke’s 17th Annual Start-Up Challenge have found time between classes, homework, and West Union runs to research and develop pitches aiming to solve real-world problems with entrepreneurship. The event, hosted last week at the Fuqua School of Business, featured a Trinity alum as the keynote speaker. Beating out the other seven start-up pitches for the $50,000 Grand Prize was Walla, an app founded by Judy Zhu, a Pratt senior.

Judy Zhu and the Walla team pose with their $50,000 check, which is giant in more ways than one.

Judy Zhu and the Walla team pose with their $50,000 check, which is giant in more ways than one.

Walla aims to create a social health platform for college students by addressing widespread loneliness and creating a more inclusive campus community. The app’s users post open invitations to activities, from study groups to pick-up sports, allowing students to connect over shared interests.

Walla is closely tied with Duke Medicine by providing data from user activity to medical researchers. User engagement is analyzed to supply valuable information on mental health in young adults to professionals. The app currently features 700 monthly active users, with 3000 anticipated within the next month, and many more as the app opens to other North Carolina colleges.

Tatiana Birgisson returned to Duke to talk about her own experiences creating a business while an undergrad that won the Start-Up Challenge in 2013. Birgisson’s venture, MATI energy drink, was born out of her Central Campus dorm room and, through the support of Duke I&E resources, became the major energy drink contender it is today, as a healthy alternative to Monster or Red Bull.

The $2,500 Audience Choice award went to Ebb, an app designed to empower women on their periods by keeping them informed of physical and emotional symptoms throughout the course of their cycles, and creating a community through which menstruating women can receive support from those they choose to share information with.

Tatiana Birgisson won the 2013 startup challenge with an energy drink brewed in her dorm room, now sold as MATI.

Tatiana Birgisson won the 2013 startup challenge with an energy drink brewed in her dorm room, now sold as MATI.

Other finalists included BioMetrix, a wearable platform for injury prevention; GoGlam, an application to connect working women with beauticians in Latin America; Grow With Nigeria, which provides engaging STEM experiences for students in Nigeria; MedServe; Tiba Health; Teraphic.

This year’s Start-Up Challenge was a major success, with innovative entrepreneurs coming together to share their projects on changing the world. Be sure to come out next year; I’ll post an invite on Walla!

devin_nieusma_100Post by Devin Nieusma

Page 1 of 6

Powered by WordPress & Theme by Anders Norén