• Fertility Matters and Provincial Differences: Revisiting China’s Demographic Futures: Manuscript
  • Fertility Matters and Provincial Differences: Revisiting China’s Demographic Futures: Supplementary Materials

Given the dramatic differences in birth and mortality rates among provinces, we project China’s population at a provincial level. By employing a system dynamics model, this paper projects China’s population by sex and age of each of its 31 provinces in the period 2010-2100.

We consider five scenarios for national TFR during the period 2011-2100 based on the possible effects of the country’s family planning policy. The five scenarios are: 1) a Low scenario that assumes the TFR will remain at 1.18 during the whole projection period; 2) a Low to Mid-high scenario that assumes the TFR will rise gradually from 1.18 in 2010 to 1.80 in 2020; and then remain at 1.80 during 2020-2100; 3) a Middle scenario that assumes the TFR will be constant at 1.60; 4) a Middle to Mid-high scenario that assumes the TFR will rise gradually from 1.60 in 2010 to 1.80 in 2020; and then remain at 1.80 during 2020-2100; 5) a High scenario that assumes the TFR will be kept at the replacement rate of 2.10.

Five scenarios of provincial population are available as follows:

Scenario 1

Scenario 2

Scenario 3

Scenario 4

Scenario 5