Photo Credit: Don Feria
Mexico not a part of the 2014 FIFA World Cup? No, that can’t be possible. Mexico always has a talented team. Since Mexico is a part of the fairly weak CONCACAF region, it is hard to imagine Mexico not achieving one of the top 3 qualifying spots. Truthfully, Mexico barely “earned” its right to play in Brazil.
Throughout the Mexican Football Team’s extensive history participating in FIFA matches, as well as World Cups, the national team has usually been rather successful. Even though their best result has only been advancing to the quarterfinals, Mexico is always expected to qualify for the summer event. In total, Mexico has qualified for fourteen World Cups, and more impressively, since 1994, Mexico has consecutively qualified each World Cup (1). As for FIFA rankings, Mexico has reached a high ranking of 4 (most recently in 2006), and has never slipped below a ranking of 33 (2). In the FIFA Rankings that came out at the conclusion of World Cup Qualifying in December 2013, Mexico was ranked 20th (3).
As for its region, the CONCACAF region represents all of the national teams that are located in North America, Central America, and the Caribbean. With only six teams in the top 50 of FIFA’s World Ranking, and eleven teams in the top 100, the CONCACAF region is one of the weakest FIFA associations (3). With respect to men’s soccer in CONCACAF, Mexico and the United States have tended to dominate the other teams. The CONCACAF World Cup qualifying format has six rounds, the final of which has six teams battling for the 3 total CONCACAF qualifying spots. The 4th place finisher in CONCACAF qualifying goes into a playoff versus a team from another confederation. In the Hexagonal, Mexico was favored to qualify along with the United States and Costa Rica (4).
Likelihood of Advancing from CONCACAF region (February 2013), Analysis by Zach Slaton
Goal Differential Analysis of 6 Teams in CONCACAF Round 4, Statistics by Zach Slaton
The combination of having a successful soccer history, a weak region in which it has a superior goal differential (see above), and current talented superstars like Javier Hernandez (Chicharito) and Dos Santos, made Mexico appear to be a shoe-in for one of the three automatic qualifying spots before the final round of CONCACAF qualifying began.
Chicarito and Dos Santos Dominant Play not Present During Qualifying Matches, Photo Cred: Ives Galarcep
Fortunately for the rest of CONCACAF, that is exactly why they play the games. Mexico began the final round of qualifying play by tying five of its six first games. Some argue that these draws against Jamaica, Honduras, United States, Panama, and Costa Rica were against “inferior opponents.” Not losing any of those first six games is great, but the lack of wins was troubling for Mexico since consistently achieving only one point is not enough to keep up in the standings.
|
Team |
Played |
Win |
Draw |
Lose |
Goals For |
Goals Against |
Goal Differential |
Points |
|
United States |
6 |
4 |
1 |
1 |
7 |
3 |
+4 |
13 |
|
Costa Rica |
6 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
7 |
3 |
+4 |
11 |
|
Honduras |
6 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
6 |
7 |
-1 |
7 |
|
Mexico |
6 |
1 |
5 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
+1 |
8 |
|
Panama |
6 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
5 |
7 |
-2 |
6 |
|
Jamaica |
6 |
2 |
4 |
2 |
8 |
-6 |
2 |
Of course, worse than tying would be losing games, which is exactly what Mexico did in its next two games. Mexico lost against Honduras and at the United States. This put them in 5th place (seen below), meaning that they would have to improve to make it to Brazil.
|
Team |
Played |
Win |
Draw |
Lose |
Goals For |
Goals Against |
Goal Differential |
Points |
|
United States |
8 |
5 |
1 |
2 |
10 |
6 |
+4 |
16 |
|
Costa Rica |
8 |
4 |
3 |
1 |
11 |
5 |
+6 |
15 |
|
Honduras |
8 |
3 |
2 |
3 |
10 |
10 |
0 |
11 |
|
Panama |
8 |
1 |
5 |
2 |
7 |
9 |
-2 |
6 |
|
Mexico |
8 |
1 |
5 |
2 |
4 |
6 |
-2 |
6 |
|
Jamaica |
8 |
4 |
4 |
3 |
9 |
-6 |
4 |
Obviously, following these two games, the Mexican fan base was not happy with its team’s performance. A change was needed. Bam! Almost immediately after the Honduras game, Mexico fired its coach Jose Manuel de la Torre and replaced him with the interim coach Luis Fernando Tena (5). Mexico gained a much-needed win against Panama in its next game. Unfortunately, the United States, Costa Rica, and Honduras took the three CONCACAF qualifying spots for the World Cup. However, Mexico was not completely out of qualifying. The fourth place team would be able to play a two-game playoff against New Zealand for a spot.
|
Team |
Played |
Win |
Draw |
Lose |
Goals For |
Goals Against |
Goal Differential |
Points |
|
United States |
9 |
6 |
1 |
2 |
12 |
6 |
+6 |
19 |
|
Costa Rica |
9 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
11 |
6 |
+5 |
15 |
|
Honduras |
9 |
4 |
2 |
3 |
11 |
10 |
+1 |
14 |
|
Mexico |
9 |
2 |
5 |
2 |
6 |
7 |
-1 |
11 |
|
Panama |
9 |
1 |
5 |
3 |
8 |
11 |
-3 |
8 |
|
Jamaica |
9 |
4 |
5 |
3 |
11 |
-6 |
4 |
All Mexico had to do to play New Zealand was earn a point in its last game. Of course, they lost to Costa Rica. Now their best hope completely rested on the United States vs. Panama game. If Panama won, Mexico would be out; any other result and Mexico would play New Zealand. Since the United States had already clinched their spot and the game meant nothing to them, they played some reserves rather than their strongest lineup (6). Panama went up 2-0 early, and was leading the game deep into the second half. Mexico looked doomed. As stoppage time ticked away in the second half with the United States down 2-1, Mexico received its salvation. In the last three minutes, the United States scored not once, but twice. These goals solidified Mexico’s 4th place position and prompted Mexico’s announcers to rejoice and praise the United States.
Mexico announcers praising the United States for saving Mexico’s qualifying hopes
All that was left for Mexico was a two game playoff against New Zealand for the last World Cup Qualifying spot (7). Before the series against New Zealand, Mexico hired Miguel Herrera as a full-time head coach, making him the fourth Mexican coach since September 2014 and the eighth coach hired since 2007 (8). Unlike the previous months of qualifying, Mexico decided to avoid the dramatic suspense. After winning the first game at home 5-1, Mexico’s chances for going to the World cup increased from 50% to 99.2% (9). The following week, Mexico won 4-2 and finally earned its bid to the 2014 World Cup as they defeated New Zealand 9-3 on aggregate.
Daniel’s Pre-World Cup Prediction
Mexico received the draw into Group A, along with Brazil (10), Croatia (16), and Cameron (51) (Parentheses indicate FIFA ranking). Currently, Mexico has a 45.3% chance to advance to the knockout round (10) the overall odds of winning the entire tournament at 100/1 (11). Mexico did limp through the qualifying games and barely received the bid to Brazil, but I do think that those games along with the panic and anxiety that flowed throughout Mexico was a huge eye-opener for the national team. The combination of the semi-weak group along with their couple of recent wins makes me feel as if they can at least finish second in Group A. Unfortunately, I believe that is where there journey to the final game ends since they would have to face a team from the more talented Group B (Spain or the Netherlands probably). But I would not completely sleep on the Mexican team because of their recent overall play. This team still has plenty enough talent to knock out any of the top teams.
World Cup Outcome
It turns out Daniel’s prediction was spot on. Mexico placed second in Group A with seven points. In their opening match, Giovanni Dos Santos had two goals disallowed for being offsides (both of which were highly debatable), but Mexico still defeated Cameroon 1-0 after a goal from Oribe Peralta in the 61st minute (12). In the second match against the host nation, Guillermo Ochoa’s amazing saves helped Mexico draw with Brazil 0-0, which meant that Mexico needed at least a point from its final match to go through to the Round of 16 (13). The beginning of Mexico’s third match was nail-biting, but 3 goals for El Tri after the 70th minute pushed Mexico into the Round of 16 after a 3-1 victory over Croatia (14). In the group stages, Mexico coach Miguel Herrera became an internet sensation due to his emotions and celebrations. 
However, Mexico faced off against the Netherlands in the Round of 16 and were winning 1-0 until Wesley Sneijder tied it up at one all in the 88th minute. Then, Arjen Robben flopped in the box but was given a penalty, which Klaas-Jan Huntelaar put away in the 94th minute to let the Netherlands advance to the quarterfinals with a 2-1 victory. Given Mexico’s struggles in qualifying, the team surprised many people in Brazil and should carry this momentum to this summer’s Gold Cup.
Gif from The Guardian.
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(1) “Mexico qualifies for sixth straight World Cup.” San Jose Mercury News. November 20, 2013. http://www.mercurynews.com/sports/ci_24562280/mexico-qualifies-sixth-straight-world-cup
(2) “Mexico National Team: ‘El Tricolor.'” Find the Best. http://national-soccer-teams.findthebest.com/l/23/Mexico
(3) “FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking.” FIFA.com. http://www.fifa.com/worldranking/rankingtable/
(4) Slaton, Zach. “Forecasting CONCACAF’s Hexagonal.” Forbes. February 5, 2013. http://www.forbes.com/sites/zachslaton/2013/02/05/forecasting-concacafs-hexagonal/
(5) Abnos, Alexander. “Mexico fires head soccer coach Jose Manuel de la Torre.” Sports Illustrated Wire. September 7, 2013. http://tracking.si.com/2013/09/07/mexico-fires-chepo-de-la-torre-soccer/
(6) Schaerlaeckens, Leander. “USA won’t face Panama at full strength.” Fox Sports. October 15, 2013. http://msn.foxsports.com/foxsoccer/worldcup/story/jurgen-klinsmann-gives-others-chances-but-squad-selection-could-stunt-usmnt-momentum-101413
(7) Arangure Jr, Jorge. “Mexico down but not out as New Zealand World Cup playoff looms.” The Guardian. November 12, 2013. http://www.theguardian.com/football/2013/nov/12/mexico-new-zealand-brazil-world-cup-playoff
(8) “Mexican National Soccer Team Hires Fourth New Coach in Six Weeks.” Fox News Latino. October 19, 2013. http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/sports/2013/10/19/mexican-national-soccer-team-hires-4th-new-coach-in-six-weeks/.
(9) Zucker, Joseph. “New Zealand vs. Mexico Playoff: Last Minute Preview for 2014 World Cup Qualifier.” Bleacher Report. November 19, 2013. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1857838-new-zealand-vs-mexico-playoff-last-minute-preview-for-2014-world-cup-qualifier
(10) Kullowatz, Matthias. “World Cup Draws: United States, Mexico, and the Netherlands.” American Soccer Analysis. December 7, 2013. http://americansocceranalysis.wordpress.com/2013/12/07/world-cup-draws-united-states-mexico-and-the-netherlands/.
(11) Keeney, Tim. “World Cup Odds 2014: Updated Chances for Each Country Following Draw.” Bleacher Report. December 7, 2013. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1878805-world-cup-odds-2014-updated-chances-for-each-country-following-draw.
(12) Gomez, Enrique. “Mexico’s Peralta Finally Sees off Cameroon after Referee Fluffs His Lines.” The Guardian. 13 June 2014. http://www.theguardian.com/football/2014/jun/13/mexico-cameroon-world-cup-group-a-match-report
(13) Smith, Ben. “Brazil 0 Mexico 0.” 17 June 2014. http://www.bbc.com/sport/0/football/25285134
Sanghera, Mandeep. “Mexico 3 Croatia 1” 23 June 2014. http://www.bbc.com/sport/0/football/25285326
How to cite this article: “Mexico,” Written by Daniel Stapor (2013) Edited by Dylan Newman (2015), World Cup 2014, Soccer Politics Blog, Duke University, http://sites.duke.edu/wcwp/world-cup-2014/stories-from-the-2014-qualifiers/mexico/
