Evaluating the effectiveness and efficiency of homeland security programs is essential to both ensure the public safety and save taxpayer dollars. IHSS conducts independent, rigorous, and comprehensive program evaluations for homeland security agencies and also assists in the design development of such evaluations. Proper data collection efforts enable government partners to make informed, evidence-based decisions on policies and resource allocation.

PROJECTS

Program Evaluation for Rapid DNA Testing

The majority of immigrants to the United States qualify for ent based on family relationship. Currently, the United States Citizenship and Immigration Service (USCIS) uses fingerprints to check for criminal history or immigration violations on benefits applicants, but these biometrics do not determine if persons are related to one another. To address this concern, the Department of Homeland Security’s Science and Technology Directorate (DHS S&T) funded the development of a low-cost, rapid DNA screening technology. That technology is ready to be employed in a limited capacity in the field. IHSS will evaluate the success of the pilot program and recommend procedures to improve its transition, implementation, and long-term use within USCIS.

Biometric Air and Sea Exit Strategy (BASES)

In 2003, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) developed the United States Visitor and Immigration Status Indicator Technology (US-VISIT) system to improve security at U.S. ports of entry. In 2007 Congress mandated that US-VISIT collect biometric and biographic information from  foreign nationals as they enter and exit the United States. Currently, US-VISIT collects only biographic information upon entry, and has not implemented a biometric exit system equivalent to the entry system.

IHSS was tasked with developing a program evaluation framework for the Biometric Air and Sea Exit Strategy (BASES) that can be used by DHS to: 1) identify and validate evaluation procedures conducted during the pilot studies of the biometric exit program, 2) conduct process and outcome evaluations of previous biometric exit pilots,  3) provide recommendations for the implementation of future biometric exit activities, and 4) develop a plan to conduct a cost/benefit analysis of recommendations.

Biometrics are unique physical characteristics, such as fingerprints, that can be used for automated recognition. Since 2004, the Department of Homeland Security’s US-VISIT program, United States Visitor and Immigrant Status Indicator Technology, has collected biometrics—digital fingerprints and photographs—to protect against identity theft and fraud. Unlike names and dates of birth, which can be changed, biometrics are unique and virtually impossible to forge.

PROJECTS

“Multimodal Human ID From Video”
Charles Schmitt, Allan Porterfield, Sean Maher, David Knowles

This project aims to define the conditions under which new multimodal approaches must operate and to assess the gap between state of the art technology and operational needs. We believe that the combination of existing state-of-the-art target identification algorithms can achieve high accuracy in videos that contains significant variation in camera-subject view angle as well as significant variation in illumination conditions. Evaluation of these algorithms under conditions to be faced by production deployments is necessary to understand the gap and guide future research.

Link to Presentation
Link to Report

“Imperceptible and Real-Time 3D Scanning for Biometric Identification and Verification”
Anselmo Lastra, Henry Fuchs, Peter Stein, Greg Welch, Ali Farsaie, Will Austin, Ping Fu, Alex Chen

Identification of individuals is critical to homeland security, and 3D face recognition promises to become a reliable and robust method of identification. Many research issues remain before 3D face recognition becomes robust enough to deploy. With this research, we propose to address two of the problems: the disturbing flashing caused by structured light (the leading 3D acquisition method), and the slow speed of acquisition. Specifically, we propose to:

• Develop practical ways to generate Imperceptible Structured Light, a UNC invention that projects patterns and their inverse so rapidly that the subject perceives only white light, and;
• Use commodity graphics processors as computational engines to make the 3D acquisition as rapid as digital photography.

Link to Presentation
Link to Report

REPORTS AND RESEARCH BRIEFS

“Human DNA Identity Testing Policy Report”
Sara Huston Katsanis

DNA Testing is useful for establishing biological relationships and therefore is ideally suited for resolving questions of relatedness, an important factor in many migration policies. Migrant applicants may submit DNA specimens as proof of relations with family members already settled in a destination country. Recent reports of immigration fraud into the U.S. have led to efforts to improve documentation of immigration applicants and refugees, including DNA profiling. The profiled DNA may be (a) compared to claimed relatives; (b) compared to a database of crime evidence and wanted persons profiles; or (c) uploaded into a database for future reference.

Link to Research Brief

“3D Scanning for Biometric Identification and Verification”
Anselmo Lastra, Ph.D.
Published 06/16/2010

Reliable and robust identification and verification of individuals is critical to homeland security applications such as surveillance, authorization for entry to secure areas, and passport identity verification. Traditional biometrics, such as mug shots, fingerprints, and voice recognition, have been used with some success. However, they exhibit serious disadvantages for some tasks. These three biometrics, for example, are problematic for surveillance (identification); even the traditional mug shot is difficult to use in automated surveillance applications because many factors, such as lighting and frontal visibility, cannot be controlled. A relatively new biometric, 3D facial recognition, holds great promise. This brief presents the technical background of the 3D scanning technologies, briefly surveys related biometrics that may be combined with 3D recognition, provides an overview of the major technical issues, and highlights research opportunities to overcome those issues.

Link to Research Brief

“Human Identification from Video: A Summary of Multimodal Approaches”
Charles Schmitt, Ph.D.
Published 06/22/2010

The U.S. Department of Homeland Security’s (DHS) Personal Identification Systems Thrust Area focuses on developing an “accurate, contactless, near real-time capability to identify known threats…through effective, interoperable multi-biometrics capabilities” (DHS Web site, 2009). A robust ability to accurately identify people from video under a variety of real-world conditions is an important capability in this context because it is potentially one of the most accurate and widely deployable technologies that requires neither contact nor consent. Maintaining high verification and identification rates when there is significant variation in illumination, view angle, degree of occlusion (eyeglasses, scarves, beards, etc.), surgical alteration, or viewing distance continues to present challenges to building truly robust person-identification systems that operate well in less controlled imaging conditions. This brief will investigate the advantages of using multimodal systems to improve accuracy and robustness of video-based biometric identification systems.

Link to Research Brief

Soon after the 9/11 attacks, some officials recommended that large-scale data mining be used as a method for identifying potential terrorist activity. At its core, data mining involves finding previously unknown patterns or relationships in large databases through the use of automated algorithms. The idea was that federal, state and local agencies could assemble numerous types of data on individuals (such as commercial data consolidators’ personal dossiers, credit card information, and airline passenger data), trawl the resulting data sets, and find patterns of activity that would identify potential terrorists.

PROJECTS 

“Building on Clues: Improving Methods to Help Law Enforcement Detect and Analyze Terrorist Activity”
Kevin Strom, John Hollywood, Mark Pope, Garth Weintraub, Crystal Daye, Don Gemeinhardt

The U.S. federal government and state and local agencies have made progress in developing processes for reporting and sharing information critical to terrorist activity through suspicious activity reports (SARs). Yet, there has been little federal guidance provided on how to analyze SARs. We are developing improved law enforcement methods for collecting, processing, and analyzing information on suspicious activities potentially related to terrorism. The project has four phases, with the first two phases serving as preparatory activities for Phases III and IV:

Phase I, Case Studies—Conduct structured case studies of prior terrorist plots to identify the types of suspicious behaviors and means of reporting that most frequently led to discovering terrorist activity.

Phase II, Law Enforcement Interviews—Conduct interviews with law enforcement experts to document how SARs are collected and used, problems with current analysis protocols, and recommendations for improvement.

Phase III, Analytic Approaches—Develop analytic processes for the different forms of SAR data, including recommended procedures for filtering cases, for finding relationships between cases, and for prioritizing cases of interest. This task will begin by reviewing existing templates for suspicious activity reports to characterize common fields.

Phase IV, Dissemination—Develop research and educational materials on collecting, processing, and analyzing SAR data for use by law enforcement.

In this project, RTI International, and its subcontractor RAND Corporation, will partner with experts in law enforcement and homeland security, including the Federal Law Enforcement Training Center (FLETC) and the North Carolina State Fusion Center. Findings can be used to inform law enforcement data collection and training initiatives including guidelines and processes used for the Nationwide SAR Initiative (NSI).

Link to Report
Link to Final Report
Link to Presentation for Informs (2009)
Link to Presentation at Research Summit (2010)
Link to Presentation for Southern Shield (2010)

“NCFOODSAFE: New Informatics Tools for Latency Reduction”
Noel Greis, Monica Nogueira, Pia MacDonald, Rachel Wilfert

A safe and secure food supply is critical to our national security. The recent string of food recalls and foodborne illnesses have created a sense of urgency in addressing gaps in the food safety system, and made safe food a high priority in the U.S. Congress. Early detection and rapid response are challenges that must be met to minimize the impact of a contamination event –whether unintentional or the result of a terrorist act. Researchers from University of North Carolina’s Center for Logistics and Digital Strategy (CLDS) at Kenan-Flagler Business School and the North Carolina Center for Public Health Preparedness (NCPHP) in the Gillings School of Global Public Health have forged a collaboration to improve food safety at the state level. The NCFOODSAFE project will bridge existing gaps in current NC food safety systems by identifying needs and developing new informatics tools that recognize the human element of an intrinsically complex and dynamic process. The project will focus on understanding the communication structures among government agencies and personnel responsible for regulating and overseeing the state’s food safety system and its interplay with other jurisdictions. To demonstrate the potential of the proposed tools to reduce latency, a prototype FEDA (Foodborne Events Data Integration and Analysis) software tool will be built and tested. This project is a first step toward the eventual integration of new capabilities within current NC surveillance and response systems. NCFOODSAFE will align with current national strategic plans for food safety and its results will serve as model for similar efforts in other states.

Link to Presentation
Link to Report
Link to Final Report

REPORTS AND RESEARCH BRIEFS

“Building on Clues: Methods to Help State and Local Law Enforcement Detect and Characterize Terrorist Activity”
John Hollywood, PhD
Published 05/11/2009

State and local law enforcement agencies are important partners in preventing terrorism, with responsibilities that include identifying and investigating local terrorist threats and protecting potential targets from attack. To meet these responsibilities, law enforcement must develop better ways to find and analyze pieces of information that could spotlight potential terrorist activity. This research brief focuses on describing methods for finding and analyzing information indicating potential terrorist activity.

Link to Research Brief

“Informatics Tools for Food Safety and Defense”
Noel Greis, PhD
Published 10/29/2009

Our national security depends on a safe and secure food supply that is free of contamination, whether unintentional or the result of a terrorist act. The Pandemic and All-Hazards Preparedness Act (PAHPA) established the goal of near-real-time electronic situational awareness to enhance detection, response, and management of public health threats in order to minimize their impact. Meeting this challenge for food safety depends on our ability to collect, interpret, and disseminate electronic information across organizational and jurisdictional boundaries. Most of the public health and food safety informatics work in the United States takes place at different local, state, and federal jurisdictional levels. There are multiple information systems at various levels that lack interoperability, hindering effective intelligence gathering and timely response. This research brief examines gaps in our ability to meet the challenge of food safety in the United States with regard to PAHPA.

Link to Research Brief

PROJECTS:

Violent Intent Modeling and Simulation
Georgiy Bobashev, Burton Levine, Joe Eyerman, Michael Schwerin, Richard Legault

The objective of VIMS is to develop an analytical tool that uses modeling and simulation to interpret the motivations and behaviors of violent groups and identify indicators that could predict when a group will engage in politically motivated violent behavior. The overall goal of the VIMS project is to develop a decision-support tool for intelligence analysts that infuses the tradecraft of intelligence analysis with theory-based social science models of indicators of group violence that fits within the work flow of the intelligence analyst.

Link to Presentation

Adversarial Risk Analysis: Bayesian Methods
David Banks

To develop Bayesian methods for game theoretic situations, and to apply these to auctions, gambling, and bioterrorism, with a model analysis for the smallpox threat.

Link to Presentation
Link to Report
Link to Final Report

REPORTS AND RESEARCH BRIEFS:

“Deradicalization: A Review of the Literature with Comparison to Findings in the Literatures on Deganging and Deprogramming”
Madeline Morris, JD
Published 06/14/2010

Since 2002, “deradicalization” programs, which seek to induce the disengagement of suspected terrorists from terrorist activities, have been established in Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Afghanistan, Tajikistan, Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Bangladesh, the Philippines, the United Kingdom, and the Netherlands (Barrett & Bokhari, 2009). The United States has established deradicalization programs in U.S. detention facilities in Iraq and, more recently, Afghanistan (Schmitt, 2009). The deradicalization programs established to date have focused largely on ideological factors—seeking to “deradicalize” program participants through disputation of the content of terrorist groups’ doctrines and religious interpretations (Barrett & Bokhari, 2009; Boucek, 2008, 2009; Boucek, Beg, & Horgan, 2009; Abuza, 2009). The Saudi program has a somewhat broader scope that fosters participants’ reintegration with their families and affords some economic assistance in the post-program period (Stern, 2010). This research brief reviews the literature on deradicalization and evaluates the methodology of deradicalization programs, based on the research identifying individual motivations for entering and exiting terrorist organizations, providing comparison with relevant findings in the literatures on “deprogramming” of cult members and “deganging.”

Link to Research Brief

“A Computational Framework for Determination and Exploitation of Social Network Models from Wide-Area Persistent Surveillance Imagery”
Jon Protz, Ph.D.
Published 06/22/2010

Wide-area persistent surveillance promises to revolutionize domestic situational awareness by providing real-time visual imagery of events, individual actors, and groups of interest to the national homeland security mission. However, fully realizing the potential of this technology requires computational tools capable of extracting actionable information from many highly dense data streams. At present, analysis of persistent surveillance imagery demands significant time and manpower resources as intelligence analysts tediously examine such data to identify suspicious activity. With the granularization of homeland security threats, the current approach and its associated strain on human resources must be reexamined with an eye towards automation. In order to realize the promise underlying wide-area persistent surveillance technology, an interdisciplinary approach is necessary. This brief argues that by merging analytic tools from the normally disparate fields of behavioral science and engineering systems theory, a methodology for automatic target identification and exploitation can be realized.

Link to Research Brief

LITERATURE REVIEWS:

“How Political and Social Movements Form on the Internet and How They Change Over Time”
Jamie Friedland, Kenneth Rogerson

Information and communication technologies (ICTs) are facilitating collective action in ways never thought possible. Although the broader influence on the success or failure of emerging social movement organizations (SMOs), the Internet is enabling groups previously incapable of political action to find their voices. Whether this shift is offering greater relative benefit to previously underrepresented or incumbent political fixtures is subject to debate, but it is clear that like-minded people are now able to better locate and converse with each other via many Internet media. As a result, the distance between talk and organized action has grown smaller.

Link to Literature Review

“The Impact of the Internet on Deviant Behavior and Deviant Communities”
Hope Smiley McDonald, Nicole Horstmann, Kevin J. Strom, Mark W. Pope

Online deviant behavior refers to a range of activities, some considered illegal, some considered amoral, many considered both. The Internet has transformed the accessibility of information and enabled individuals with common beliefs to find each other and reinforce behaviors considered unacceptable. Pathological individuals, once limited by time, space, and societal constraints, use virtual communities to communicate and organize. Less clear is the extent to which the Internet has increased or modified the prevalence of certain deviant behaviors. This literature review summarizes current research on three commonly researched types of Internet deviance (i.e., sexual deviance, self-harm groups, and hate groups) with the goal of highlighting common findings that will enhance our understanding of the role(s) that the Internet plays in supporting or encouraging deviant behaviors. Theories and methods used to study these behaviors are briefly reviewed and policy implications are considered.

Link to Literature Review

Community resilience is a measure of the sustained ability of a community to to better mitigate and defend against dynamic threats, minimize risks, and maximize the ability to respond and recover from attacks and disasters of all kinds. Community resilience encompasses the full fabric of the community and its ability to resist and/or rapidly recover from extreme events.

PROJECTS 

“Building Resilience with Diverse Communities: Faith-based and Community-based Organizations involved in Emergency Preparedness and Response”
Brian Burke, Joe Eyerman, Michael Burke, Casey Tischner, Sarah Lycan

As part of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security’s mission to protect the safety and security of U.S. residents, the Center for Faith-based and Neighborhood Partnerships seeks to engage local organizations in emergency preparedness and response (EPR). To support this initiative, RTI International is conducting a two-part project to expand the contribution of diverse local organizations as they help their communities prepare for, respond to, and recover from disasters in Miami-Dade County, Florida. Faith-based and community organizations (FBCOs) are invaluable assets to communities during and after natural disasters. As the Center seeks to help these organizations become more involved in making their communities resilient to disasters, this project seeks to fill a knowledge and practice gap by identifying procedures to expand the capacity of FBCOs involved in EPR activities.

The short-term goals accomplished during Phase I of the project, completed in 2009-2010 in the Miami-Dade area, were 1) achieving a better understanding of the strengths and assets that FBCOs bring and, 2) understanding the challenges faced as organizations engage in emergency preparedness and response. To achieve these goals, the project team and its partners hosted a number of community engagement activities; conducted a desk study to identify the current state of research on this topic; interviewed key informants from local FBCOs; conducted a social network analysis of local FBCOs; and developed an initial set of management guidelines for future testing.

Phase II will build on the work completed in Phase I to assess and model the role of FBCOs in EPR and will address the following goals:

• advance engagement by FBCOs in emergency response planning
• develop standards applicable to FBCOs emergency response management to be implemented in other regions
• evaluate the effectiveness of these standards and their impact on contributions made by FBCOs in community resilience.

In Phase II, the project team will develop and implement an EPR management training program to meet the needs of FBCOs. The training program will be evaluated, refined and developed as a resource for use in other regions. To complete work for this project, the project team will develop materials for outreach and training; collect, code and analyze FBCO guidance documents; train pilot FBCOs; revise guidelines, training materials and recruitment protocols; conduct full-scale training; evaluate training; conduct a community workshop; and finalize management guidelines and training materials for transition to other regions.

Link to Desk Study
Project Bibliography
Link to Project Overview

REPORTS AND RESEARCH BRIEFS

“Methods for Assessing Vulnerability of Critical Infrastructure”
Eric Solano, PhD, PE
Published 04/05/2010

Several events in the recent past, including the attacks of 9/11 and Hurricane Katrina, revealed the lack of plans to protect infrastructure from destructive threats and prompted the need to work on preparedness, response, and recovery plans related to infrastructure safety. To work on preparedness, response, and recovery plans, given the scarce resources available, it is necessary to select infrastructures for protection and decide how they will be protected against potential threats. To accomplish these goals, policymakers will benefit from data and information derived from risk, vulnerability, and resilience assessments and scenario simulations. The research question that motivates this brief is whether an inclusive approach that incorporates physical, social, organizational, economic, and environmental variables in addition to empirical measurements and operationalization of resilience and vulnerability will help to improve the understanding and management of risk associated with threats to complex infrastructure systems. This brief reviews recent literature in vulnerability and resilience assessment, summarizes the most important findings, and suggests future directions to advance the field of vulnerability and resilience research.

Link to Research Brief

“Institutional Barriers to Resilience in Minority Communities”
Toby Moore, PhD
Published 05/19/2010

An overlooked source of vulnerability for minority residents of the United States is the degree to which their communities and institutions are isolated from or at odds with the institutions, organizations, and agencies responsible for emergency planning and response. Local conflicts between communities and governmental and non-governmental agencies, distrust of law enforcement and the justice system, and social and political isolation are among the barriers that impair the ability of some minority communities to withstand natural or manmade disasters, yet not enough has been done to incorporate this factor into measures of community resiliency. At the individual level, the vulnerability of ethnic, racial, and language minority people is well documented, particularly in the wake of Hurricane Katrina. If an emphasis on community resiliency is intended, in part, to roll back the federalization of relief efforts and reassert local responsibility, DHS policy makers need to take into account institutional barriers to equal access at the community level. Minority communities left to rely on neglectful or even hostile local institutions may find their vulnerability increased through the devolution of authority down to the local level. A critical first step is to better understand the magnitude and location of these barriers. This research brief examines the literature of the civil rights of emergency response at a new scale—that of the institution and the community—and suggests ways we can broaden and deepen our knowledge in this area, and thus our ability to quantify and overcome these barriers.

Link to Research Brief

“The American Community Survey and Enhanced Community-Level Social Vulnerability Assessment”
John Boos, MS
Published 09/30/2009

Understanding the potential impacts of hazards on the well-being of a population is essential for policy makers in the Department of Homeland Security in order to improve the nation’s preparedness and response to threats. Numerous methods exist to quantify physical and economic vulnerability and to geographically describe the distribution and likelihood of hazard occurrence. A third type of vulnerability, social vulnerability, is the potential for loss or destruction of livelihoods, incomes, community resilience, and coping mechanisms. This research brief examines approaches to social vulnerability, the current literature on the measurement of social vulnerability, and the use of the American Community Survey as a potential source of data for assessing social vulnerability.

Link to Research Brief

“Engaging Local Stake Holders: A Conceptual Modal for Effective Donor-Community Collaboration”
Volker Franke, Ph.D.
Published August 2012

In an effort to stabilize and reconstruct post-conflict countries and fragile states, the United Nations and the European Union are currently involved in 29 peace operations in communities throughout the world. The Communities impacted by disasters, both man made and natural, or by the growing range of threats to peace, security, and development, require assistance from domestic and international organizations. Donor agencies and academic observers have addressed the importance of partnering with stakeholders in local communities in order to provide aid most effectively for the best possible outcome.

Link to Literature Review and Concept Paper

A number of DHS occupations (e.g., baggage screening, incident command) require sustained vigilance and share four main characteristics: The individual must be vigilant to potentially subtle or rare occurrences; There may be high stakes for missing subtle or rare, but relevant items; The individual’s responses do not influence subsequent occurrences; The individual might be required to stay “on task” for extended periods of time.

Similarly, it is often critical for Department of Homeland Security (DHS) employees to be sensitive to the presence of a threat. Whether a threat presents itself at a personal level or a more global level, the more sensitive employees are to the threat, the more likely it can be averted.

PROJECTS:

“Training That Addresses Individual Differences in Sustained Vigilance Tasks”
Robert Hubal, Stephen Mitroff, Matt Cain, Ryan DeWitt

Relatively little research has focused on individual differences in vigilance. Some literature suggests individual differences may exist in the ability to maintain vigilance when searching for a rare target over long time periods. Two recent studies by the team suggest that both age and experience with action video games can influence accuracy at finding rarely present targets. Experience with action video games has recently been shown to influence visual perception and attention quite broadly, with research showing that even real-world tasks such as certain surgeries can be influenced by prior video game experiences. However, it is still an open question whether some individuals can, or when they can, maintain vigilance fairly easily while others cannot and exactly what factors might lead to these differences.

Link to Presentation
Link to Report
Link to Final Report

“Establishing the Feasibility of Job Proficiency Work Sample Testing for Critical DHS Jobs and Job Tasks”
Jerry W. Hedge, Brooke M. Whiteford, Dawn M. Ohse

The processes involved in decision making have traditionally been conceptualized as based on a rational and deliberate evaluation of the situation at hand. Unfortunately, many decisions in the real world are not arrived at in this way, and even on simple problems people often make inconsistent decisions, ignore relevant information, and place greater emphasis on some aspects of the decision than is reasonable. Recent literature suggests that there may be substantial promise in improving the decision making process through the application of strategies beyond traditional rational approaches. One objective of this research and development project is to better understand the measurement components that will lead to the most effective, efficient, and accurate assessment of decision-making. In addition, the development of a virtual world (VW) environment may provide an ideal platform for this application because one can control the immerse environment presented to the subjects as they begin the decision-making process. Therefore, a second objective is to establish the feasibility of using a virtual world environment as a test bed for examining decision making in its various forms.

Link to Presentation
Link to Final Report

“Identifying Predictive Markers of Individual Differences in Threat Sensitivity”
Stephen Mitroff, Ahmad Hariri

It is often critical for Department of Homeland Security (DHS) employees to be sensitive to the presence of a threat. Whether a threat presents itself at a personal level (such as in the one-on-one interactions that occur at border crossings and airports) or a more global level (such as in general monitoring for impending danger or disaster), the more sensitive employees are to the threat, the more likely it can be averted. Due to natural predisposition and/or personal experiences, some individuals are more sensitive to the presence of a threat than others. The goal of this proposal is to examine how to quickly and affordably identify high threat sensitivity individuals before they are charged with critical DHS duties. With recent advances in neurogenetics research, and the expertise and resources available to our team, we can explore here whether specific genetic markers mapping onto variability in brain structure and function as well as dispositional behavioral characteristics (e.g., personality) are predictive of increased threat sensitivity.

Link to Presentation (November 2010)

REPORTS AND RESEARCH BRIEFS:

“Identifying Predictive Markers of Field Performance: The Potential Role of Individual Differences in Threat Sensitivity”
Stephen Mitroff, PhD
Published 03/04/2010

This research brief examines the recent advances in neurogenetics research that are poised to address the challenge of how best to preselect individuals who will exhibit high levels of threat sensitivity. Recent research has highlighted how the integration of behavioral, neural, and genetic markers can uniquely reveal the mechanisms that give rise to individual differences, and this brief explores the relevance of this work in establishing predictive markers of increased threat sensitivity.

Link to Research Brief

“Trust Calibration for Automated Decision Aids”
Maranda McBride, PhD
Published 03/12/2010

Given the variety of complex situations that arise in the context of homeland security where uncertainty and vulnerability persist, it is essential that measures be taken to enhance the safety of U.S. citizens. Various new technological devices likely to be developed to meet the needs of this “war on terror” era include data mining technology, communication systems, hazard detection devices, command and control systems, screening technologies, and biometric identification systems. All of these devices will rely on some form of automation and are designed to expedite the decision making process; thus, it is suitable to refer to them as automated decision aids (ADAs). The intent of ADAs is to enable users to make timely decisions by providing pertinent information in a more efficient manner than a human being working alone can achieve. Unfortunately, no matter how robust the design, it is likely that ADA software is going to fall short of expectations at some time. In such cases, decision makers begin to view the ADA as ineffective and develop a level of distrust in the system. Decision makers with properly calibrated trust are essential in order to prevent many of the adverse consequences associated with both automation disuse and misuse. Thus one of the primary research questions to be investigated is, What are the most effective methods of ADA trust calibration?

Link to Research Brief

“Aging and Top-Down Attentional Control in Visual Search”
David Madden, PhD
Published 04/29/2010

Many visual tasks, such as airport baggage screening, rely heavily on the ability to accurately and efficiently search for and detect target items amongst distractors. It is critical to the mission of the Human Factors/Behavior Sciences Division of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) to be able to assess and maintain this skill set in those employed as baggage screeners. Basic and applied research in visual search has yielded an extensive body of knowledge regarding the human- and task-dependent variables contributing to search performance. In particular, previous research suggests that the efficiency of visual search varies significantly as a function of increasing adult age. With increasing age, elementary sensory/motor performance (i.e., “bottom-up” processing) declines, whereas reliance on experience and knowledge of task-relevant goals (i.e., “top-down” attention) tends to increase. To date, only studies of younger adult observers have been published. In addition, the relative contributions of top-down and bottom-up variables to rare target search have not been investigated. Thus, to optimize rare target search in applied settings, such as baggage screening, research is needed that investigates the potential contributions of both adult age and top-down attentional control.

Link to Research Brief

“Individual Differences in Vigilance Tasks”
Robert Hubal, PhD
Published 05/11/2009

Within the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), a number of occupations (e.g., baggage screening, passenger screening, dispatch, incident command) require sustained levels of attention by an individual – what is termed “vigilance” in this paper – and share several characteristics. Relatively little research has focused on individual differences in vigilance. Some literature suggests individual differences may exist in the ability to maintain vigilance for a rare target over long time periods. However, it is an open question whether some individuals can maintain vigilance fairly easily while others cannot. This brief addresses the following questions: Are there individual differences in the inherent ability to sustain vigilance, and what are the most effective approaches for training and improving sustained vigilance for rare items or events?

Link to Research Brief

“Job Proficiency Work Sample Testing for Critical DHS Jobs and Job Tasks”
Jerry Hedge, PhD
Published 05/11/2009

The Department of Homeland Security works to anticipate, preempt, detect, and deter threats to the homeland. Consequently, vigilance is a primary aspect of many “front-line” jobs oriented toward detection and prevention, where employees must pay close and sustained attention and maintain that attentiveness over time. Often this is to be found in some form of “watchkeeping” activity when an observer, or listener, must continuously monitor a situation in which significant, but usually infrequent and unpredictable, events may occur. Exclusive reliance on objective measures tends to be deficient in terms of adequate coverage of the performance domain. This research brief examines an alternative (simulation environments for work sample testing) to traditional approaches that DHS can employ to identify task-specific competency levels within key jobs and ensure that proficiency is maintained at high levels for these critical job components.

Link to Research Brief

“Adversarial Risk Analysis: Decision Making When There Is Uncertainty During Conflict”
David Banks, PhD
Published 06/15/2009

Counterterrorism requires decision makers to allocate defensive resources in situations for which the kind of attack and the likely consequence of an attack are unknown. The two current tools for analyzing such problems are inadequate. Classical game theory assumes that the costs and benefits are known, does not use partial information (e.g., military intelligence), and produces results that humans find unrealistic. Statistical risk analysis assumes that the adversary is “nature” rather than an intelligent opponent who seeks to exploit weaknesses. Neither approach takes explicit account of resource constraints under which managers must operate. This research brief focuses on new strategies, particularly Bayesian versions of game theory, for repairing these deficiencies.

Link to Research Brief

“Rational Choice Models of Political Violence: The Role of Injustice and Retribution”
Jeremy Bray, PhD
Published 09/30/2009

Rational choice theory, a cornerstone of economic theory for more than a century, has been largely dismissed as having relevance to the study of political violence, especially when applied to individuals rather than to groups. Yet rational choice theory offers many benefits to policymakers attempting to prevent political violence: it can place political violence within a continuum that ranges from tacit approval of violence, to nonviolent explicit support, to actual participation in violent acts. This brief argues that rational choice models can be usefully extended to explore the role that revenge seeking plays in individuals’ choices to engage in political violence.

Link to Research Brief

“Can Intuitive Decision Making Improve Homeland Security?”
Jerry Hedge, PhD
Published 12/08/2009

Judgmental processes involved in risk perception and decision making have traditionally been conceptualized as cognitive in nature, being based upon a rational and deliberate evaluation of the situation at hand. Conversely, research from diverse literatures suggests that intuitive decision-making may offer an alternative behavioral strategy in some situations. A variety of different occupations within the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) require job incumbents to confront situations that are both novel and time-sensitive, suggesting the likely benefits of research on intuitive decision-making and application directed at jobs such as border patrol agents and airport screeners. This brief critically evaluates the current state of scientific knowledge of intuitive decision-making, with a view to refining the way in which the construct may be operationalized in future work and gaining a better understanding of how intuition may best be developed, assessed, and applied within DHS.

Link to Research Brief

Disaster response activities are actions taken to save lives and prevent further property damage in an emergency situation. Response is putting preparedness plans into action.  Disaster recovery activities are actions taken to return to a normal or an even safer situation following an emergency.  The mission of the Department of Homeland Security is to support American citizens and first responders to ensure that as a nation we work together to build, sustain, and improve our capability to prepare for, protect against, respond to, recover from, and mitigate all hazards.

REPORTS AND RESEARCH BRIEFS

“Assessing the Disaster Recovery Planning Capacity of the State of North Carolina”
Gavin Smith, PhD
Published 01/21/2011

Disaster recovery remains the least understood aspect of hazards management, when assessed relative to preparedness, response, and hazard mitigation (Berke, Kartez, & Wenger, 1993; Smith & Wenger, 2006). Furthermore, while states are critical stakeholders in this process, their role remains less understood than the roles of federal and local governments (Waugh & Sylves, 1996; Smith & Wenger, 2006). This reality is manifest in the lack of sound recovery policy and often poor recovery outcomes following disasters. State governments do provide numerous recovery-related services, including the formulation of state policy, the coordination of assistance, and the provision of training, education, and outreach programs (Durham & Suiter, 1991). In practice, however, state involvement in disaster recovery varies widely due to differing levels of capability and commitment among emergency management organizations and other state agencies tasked with recovery activities (National Governor’s Association, 1998).

Link to Research Brief

“Cooperation of Immigrant Communities to Avert Disaster: Refined and Improving Focus in Communication Strategy”
Richard Hill, MA
Published 04/16/2010

As DHS works with its local first responder partners to protect U.S. citizens and infrastructure from terrorist threats and natural and manmade disasters, it is critical to both support effective communication with those potentially affected by disasters and elicit cooperation from those who can provide information that is important to minimizing disasters. Effective communication affects a range of first responder and law enforcement efforts—from mobilizing populations out of harm’s way, to providing critical information on issues of health, to establishing the cooperation among groups that is critical to identifying threats. Past experiences have shown that poor communication with first responders has prevented the use of important information that could have averted destruction. Disaster preparedness and crime prevention programs, however, most often focus on native, usually English-speaking, minority populations. Relatively little analysis addresses communication with other ethnic groups.

Link to Research Brief

“Adequacy of the Supply and Factors Influencing Potential Shortages Among Emergency Medical Technicians and Emergency Medicine Physicians”
Michael Halpern, MD, PhD
Published 04/29/2010

Emergency medical professionals play a crucial role in natural disasters and other catastrophic events. These individuals include medical first responders, such as emergency medical technicians (EMTs), and also emergency department clinicians (also called first receivers), such as emergency medicine physicians, physician assistants, and nurse practitioners. By responding rapidly to potential injury-creating events, triaging medical care needs, and initiating treatment, emergency medical professionals can substantially reduce mortality and morbidity. Ensuring an adequate capacity of well-trained EMTs and emergency medicine physicians falls within the areas of interest of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS). Despite the importance of ensuring an adequate supply of EMTs and emergency medicine physicians, only limited information is available on the supply of trained emergency medical professionals and the demand for their services during both normal conditions and following disasters or other similar events. Anecdotal information suggests that there may be substantial shortages among these professionals. This brief reviews available information on current and projected future shortages among emergency medical professionals, geographic disparities in shortages, and factors that contribute to these shortages.

Link to Research Brief

“Simulation Technologies for Evacuation Planning and Disaster Response”
Ming Lin, PhD
Published 06/28/2010

First responders need a new generation of technology and resources to prepare for and respond to terrorist attacks, natural disasters, and large-scale emergencies. Next-generation simulation and experiential technologies for first responders can help better prepare them for evacuation planning and disaster response, better facilitate training experiences, and enable leaders and law-enforcement personnel to optimize their tactics using “what-if” simulations that are based on actual situations in which they might work. To accomplish these goals, new sets of technologies for evacuation planning and disaster response in urban environments are necessary. These include real-time technologies for simulating large groups of heterogeneous crowds consisting of non-uniformly distributed groups of people and “agents” (real, virtual, or constructive) with independent behaviors and goals, and urban traffic over a complex road network. Given the existing models and methods available, the research questions are as follows: Are existing methods sufficient to model large groups of heterogeneous crowds for real-time training? What are the most effective approaches for training and improving the first responders’ readiness for unexpected events? How can we evaluate and validate the results of crowd simulations for these given applications?

Link to Research Brief

The growing number of attacks on our cyber networks has become, in President Obama’s words, “one of the most serious economic and national security threats our nation faces.” Cybersecurity involves protecting our information by preventing, detecting, and responding to those attacks.  Improving our cybersecurity requires working across the federal government, partnering with the private sector, and empowering the general public to create a safe, secure, and resilient cyber environment.

PROJECTS

Understanding Cyber Security Risk Preferences: A Case Study Analysis Inspired by Public Health Research
Brent Rowe, Michael Halpern, Tony Lentz, Dallas Wood
November 2012

This report presents the results of a study conducted to improve understanding of cyber security risk preferences by leveraging past research on public health risk preferences. Cyber security shares many similarities with public health–in cyberspace, the insecurity of individual Internet users that often permits distributed attacks to occur is analogous to populations of sick individuals that facilitate infectious diseases transmission due to poor public health practices. Because individuals’ insecure computers can be turned into bots that spread attach vulnerabilities, similar to an infectious disease epidemic, developing a baseline of individual risk perceptions will help to improve understanding of individuals’ view of risks to themselves and to society from cyber security threats.

Building off of a public health framework, vaccines were identified as a prevention measure that has many similarities to antimalware software that is used to help prevent successful cyber threats. To assess the public health research on individual perceptions of threats and related preventative measures. Using the public health framework, the results and data analysis in this report focus on how experience with antimalware, exposure to malware, and general risk aversion might influence what costs and benefits most affect the utility that individuals derive from antimalware software.

As in public health, such information can be used to inform both private companies developing cyber security products and services and government agencies designing policy and regulatory strategies for improving cyber security.

Link to Journal Article(Published in Cross Talk Online)
Link to Full Report

Cyber Security Test Bed
Brent Rowe, Katrina Ladd, Charlotte Scheper, S. Cornelius Kaydos-Daniels, Kemal Pisken, Joan Myers
October 2012

The inadequacy of U.S. small and medium size business’ cyber security poses a great risk to these businesses and to all U.S. organizations and individuals. To test strategies for improving the level of cyber security maintained by small and medium businesses in the United Staes, RTI International and Applied Research Associates (ARA) launched the Cyber Test Bed project to develop a framework for identifying and testing best practices in cyber security specifically targeted at small and mid-size businesses.

The Cyber Test Bed project was a case study analysis of how a set of interventions, including threat analysis, best practices sharing, and executive and staff training events, over the course of one year, would impact a group of nine small and mid-size businesses in North Carolina. Pre and post-Test Bed interviews were conducted with company officials to establish a baseline and evaluate the impact of the Test Bed experience. After the Cyber Test Bed experience, decision makers at these companies indicated an increase in their perceptions of the risk of cyber attacks and an increase in their knowledge of possible solutions. Companies also reported that the Test bed led them to spend more time on cyber security and made them more willing to spend company funds on cyber security in the future. Over three-fourths of these officials perceived a benefit from the Test Bed indicated by a willingness to pay for this experience.

Link to Research Brief
Link to Final Report

The Millennial Cybersecurity Project: Improving Awareness of and Modifying Risky Behavior in Cyberspace
Noel Greis, Monica Nogueira, Susan Kellogg

While stereotypes portray millennials as risk-seeking and blithely unaware of threats to and policies regarding cybersecurity, the Millennial Cybersecurity Project demonstrated that digitally-mediated interventions can both reinforce positive identification of phishing emails and reduce associated risky behaviors. Millennials that experienced real-time feedback about their skill at identifying phishing emails and who received best practice phishing “strategies” from avatars improved their ability to identify suspicious emails from low and medium-trust senders. Millennials, however, consistently overlooked standard clues in phishing emails from high-trust senders. Risky behaviors regarding password creation and use were also reduced after online interventions. The first intervention provided real-time feedback about password “strength” while the second intervention supplemented feedback about password strength with a password “strategy” that encoded best practices for password creation–both delivered by a personalized avatar. Both interventions achieved reductions in risky behaviors related to password strength, suggesting that awareness and behavioral training programs that integrate real-time, online interactions with students about their cyber behaviors are worth fuller experimentation and development.

Link to Final Report

Customizing Cyber Security Training for Businesses
Maranda McBride, Lemuria Carter, Merrill Warkentin
September 2012

Strong evidence indicates that employees are a major threat to the security of an organization’s information resources. It is, therefore, imperative to understand the factors that promote compliant and non-compliant cybersecurity behaviors. Appropriate cybersecurity designs, especially within the workplace, should be based on and informed deep understanding of insider psychological profiles. This research project identifies individual personality traits that shape cybersecurity policy violation intentions. The results demonstrate that individuals react to cyber threats and deterrents in different ways and that their personality affects the way they approach compliance with cybersecurity policies. Therefore, security education, training and awareness programs should reflect these differences and provided appropriate training protocols to each individual trainee. Rather than utilizing a one-size-fits-all training approach, organizations should provided cybersecurity training and other persuasive messages that are customized to address the unique elements of employees’ personalities.

Link to Research Summary (“One Size Doesn’t Fit all: Cybersecurity Training Should be Customized”)
Link to Research Brief (“The Role of Situational Factors and Personality on Cybersecurity Policy Violation”)
Link to Final Report (“Exploring the Role of Individual Employee Characteristics and Personality on Employee Compliance with Cybersecurity Policies”)

Economic Analysis of ISP-Provided Cybersecurity Solutions
Brent Rowe
June 2011

This study aims to assess whether a market structure exists for Internet Service Providers (ISPs) to provide additional security to their customers.  Currently, home Internet users invest too little in security from a social perspective because they do not bear all of the costs of an insecure computer—other users (individuals and organizations) are hurt by attacks that originate from insecure home computers.  ISPs are in an optimal position to cost-effectively provide additional security to these home users.  We will use novel approaches to estimate both the demand for and costs (supply) of a variety of ISP-based solutions aimed at improving the current ineffective security paradigm.

Link to Report
Link to Research Brief
Link to Presentation

ARCHIVED EVENTS

“Cybersecurity: Exploring the Human Element”
March 8, 2011
The National Press Club
Washington, D.C.
Keynote Speaker: James A. Lewis, Center for Strategic and International Affairs

Link to Event Proceedings

PROJECTS

“Economic Analysis to Support the Assessment of the Social Welfare Implications of U.S. Counterterrorism Policies”
Carol Mansfield, Eric Finklestein, Dallas Wood, Brent Rowe

The purpose of this study is to quantitatively measure how willing U.S. citizens are to accept the monetary and non-monetary costs of counterterrorism policies in exchange for specific reductions in the threat of terrorism. The results of this study will enable DHS officials and government policy makers to more fully evaluate the social welfare consequences of specific counterterrorism policies.

REPORTS AND RESEARCH BRIEFS

“The Impact of Emotion in the American Public’s Assessments of and Reactions to Terrorism”
Julie Singer, Ph.D.
Published 06/28/2010

A convergence of social psychological research suggests that emotions have a powerful effect on attitudes, beliefs, and decisions, being one of the main forces that guide people toward these assessments. Given the powerful influence of emotions in these essential processes, this type of research is critical to understanding the mechanism of this influence. This research brief will summarize recent research on the emotional reactions of the American public to terrorism as well as discuss the limitations and remaining questions that these studies have elicited. Further, this brief will suggest how other findings in the emotion literature can be tested in the realm of terrorism research. Research findings in this area will impact our understanding of how the American public reacts to terrorist activities and why certain counterterrorism measures are more readily accepted by the American public than others.

Link to Research Brief

“Methods for Assessing the Social Welfare Implications of U.S. Counterterrorism Policies”
Eric Finkelstein, Ph.D.
Published 12/07/2010

Policy makers in the Department of Homeland Security seek to formulate policies that reduce risks from domestic emergencies (such as natural disasters and terrorist attacks) and result in a net-benefit to U.S. citizens. In the case of counterterrorism, this means creating policies that generate enough benefits from reducing the threat of terrorism to offset the costs that these policies may impose. Costs might include higher taxes, reduced civil liberties, and increased inconvenience or other monetary and non-monetary sacrifices. Americans may oppose some policies if they believe the costs outweigh the benefits of increased security. Under these circumstances, even effective policies could reduce social welfare of the population. The goal of this research brief is to discuss previous methods that have been used to measure how U.S. citizens perceive the costs and benefits of counterterrorism policies and to suggest directions for future research.

“Media Attention to Terrorist Attacks: Causes and Consequences”
James Igoe Walsh, Ph.D.
Published 12/07/2010

Media attention is an important vehicle by which terrorists communicate with their audiences, and thus a central goal of many terrorist groups is to influence the scale and tone of media attention to their attacks (Hoffman, 2006; Jenkins, 1975; Nacos, 2002). However, terrorist attacks vary widely in the amount of media attention they receive. Most terrorist attacks receive no attention from major media outlets. Others, such as those in New York and Washington, DC, in 2001, London in 2005, and Mumbai in 2008, received heavy coverage (Kern, Just, & Norris, 2003, p. 40). This research brief summarizes the current understanding of factors influencing the decisions of media outlets to devote attention to terrorist attack and discusses how such coverage influences potential sympathizers and supporters.

Link to Research Brief

LITERATURE REVIEWS

“Innovative Survey Methodologies for the Study of Attitudes Toward Terrorism and Counterterrorism Strategies: An Exploration of Past Surveys”
Julie Singer, Ph.D

Although some researchers have focused their attention on public responses to terrorism and governmental counterterrorism policies for many years, the field exploded with interest after the attacks of September 11, 2001. This led to a deluge of surveys conducted at the national, state, and city levels. This review summarizes the foci, approach, and findings of a sample of these past surveys.

Link to Literature Review

“Innovative Survey Methodologies for the Study of Attitudes Toward Terrorism and Counterterrorism Strategies”
Brad Bishop, Alexandra Cooper, D. Sunshine Hillygus

A study of public attitudes toward terrorism and counterterrorism strategies poses an array of challenges, ranging from selecting the appropriate target populations to developing instruments that provide meaningful measures of relevant attitudes, emotions, and behaviors. Surveys are a powerful and timely methodology for studying the attitudes, beliefs, and behaviors of the American public, particularly for capturing changes in public opinion both over time and in response to specific government policies and political events. Based on a review of the relevant survey methods literature, this report provides an overview of some of the most salient methodological and measurement considerations in developing a survey project to examine attitudes toward terrorism and counterterrorism strategies in the United States.

Link to Literature Review

REPORTS AND RESEARCH BRIEFS

“Border Crossing Improvements, Induced Travel, and Security”
Brooks Depro, Ph.D.
Published 02/26/2010

Commercial freight truck border crossings have increased considerably over the last decade. As border traffic grows, public agencies continue to try to identify innovative ways to relieve congestion while still maintaining security. Achieving the “right balance” between open borders and security continues to be a top national priority. To meet the challenge, governments have implemented new trusted shipper/traveler programs. Stakeholders continue to advocate trusted shipper/traveler programs and other border improvements because reduced congestion encourages commerce. However, route-switching and other “induced travel” responses to border crossing improvements may offset anticipated benefits (reduced congestion). We review and discuss how social scientists have studied induced travel in order to help decision makers better understand and prioritize ways to improve border crossing benefit-cost analysis.

Link to Research Brief

“Uses of RFID Technology in U.S. Identification Documents”
Noel Greis, Ph.D.
Published 03/16/2010

The investigations following the attacks of September 11, 2001, showed that our ability to verify a person’s identity is crucial to our national security. To carry out an attack on American soil, foreign terrorists must cross our borders—which requires passing an identification screening. A valid passport also allows a terrorist to obtain other valid documents (e.g., driver’s license, credit cards, health insurance card) that are important to performing normal life activities while maintaining a low profile and avoiding detection. Four projects, currently in different stages of implementation, use Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) or Machine-Readable Zones (MRZ) technologies for verification and validation of identity in the United States. The use of RFID enables data to be stored electronically in chips embedded in identification documents and shared quickly in digital format by law enforcement personnel. Documents with RFID chips and a secure networking environment to exchange data are deemed more secure and less prone to counterfeiting than conventional, non-electronic documents. However, there is still debate about how to best balance the security benefits from RFID-enabled identification documents with concerns about privacy.

Link to Research Brief