Pandemics and Sci-Fi Novels

On January 11, 2011, in Random, Student Voices, The Flu Fighters, by Hannah Anderson-Baranger

Since Sunday my imagination has been running rampant with visions of post-pandemic post-apocolyptic societies. This may partly be because I am currently reading The Windup Girl, which takes place when global warming has caused massive flooding and genetic changes. The main problem, beside energy concerns, is disease caused by genetically modified (“gene-ripped”) organisms.

Anyways, I’ve been (somewhat jokingly) formulating plans for my own sci-fi novel, “Pandemic 2011″. I know of one series of books with a post-panemeic theme, Fire-Us. Another, the Peeps series, has a vampire/shedding theme. Do you all know of any others? I think it is an extremely interesting premise and one that is likely to continue to capture the imagination of authors for years to come.

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Dr. Ian Greenwald, an emergency physician at Duke University Medical Center and an expert in distaster response planning, offers his thoughts on a mass vaccination campaign in the Durham/Chapel Hill area in the face of a disruptive and widespread pandemic during Session III (Emergency Preparedness and Response: Global Pandemic, Local Contexts).

Below is the GoogleDoc that students used to rank order 15 potential interventions. To read the instructions that were given out at the start of the small-group learning activity, see this post. To download a PDF of this form, click here.

(scroll to the right to see the entire document)

Globally we face a shortfall of an estimated 4.3 million health care workers.  As you can imagine, the consequences are enormous when a local or global health crisis arises and there are not enough staff members to address the need.

Dr. Ian Greenwald and Dr. Cameron Wolfe both touched on this issue, but what are your thoughts on the dilemma?  How do you allocate resources and manpower efficiently when you lack enough personnel?  How do you address this issue when you are facing an emergency crisis, such as an infectious disease outbreak?  Do we simply accept the fact that we will not be able to provide care to every single individual?

Small Group Learning Activity – Emergency Preparedness and Response

January 11, 2011

10:00 am-11:00 am

Your working group has one hour to discuss the following potential local community-based interventions that could potentially minimize the impact of Pandemic 2011 on the greater Durham community.   You will be presenting your recommendations to a panel of local leaders including elected officials from Durham County, the State of North Carolina and the Duke University Board of Trustees.  Community-wide emergencies require swift and coordinated action.  Community leaders have limited options to stem a rapidly evolving pandemic and all have major social and financial implications.  Your group’s recommendations will help leaders create a prompt, measured and coordinated response to the pandemic.  The overarching goal for the community response is to limit transmission of the flu virus to vulnerable populations until a vaccine strategy targeting the new virus is underway.

Please review this Session III small-group learning activity document for more details and instructions.

 

Winter Forum is on Its Regular Schedule Today

The Winter Forum is operating on its regular schedule today. The C-2 buses are running as of 7 am, so students on East and Central campuses will be able to make it to West Campus. The faculty are able to make it in. We’ll see everyone at 8:30 for breakfast with the morning session starting at 9:00.

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Although I will most likely go down in winter forum history as the girl that would readily kill her “65 year old retired grandpa over a ‘more useful and potentially productive’ 5 year old,” the entire discussion on rationing and dictating who receives vaccines (and in a sense who determines who lives or dies) was very eye-opening. Doctors have long been said to have “God complexes” and criticized for this mentality.  However today when you think of it, we were indeed playing the role of a higher power who had to dictate who was worthy of living. It was easy to laugh some of the comments off at the forum in order to take some of the weight from our shoulders. However, when we went into our breakout sessions we soon learned that being put into this decision is certainly stressful and I left the room with my head spinning, doubting whether I knew what criteria for selection was most important to me personally. The easy way out, would just be to give up and pray and hope for the best. However I think it is crucial, with each day new strains of viruses and spread being aided through the growth of infrastructure and commerce, the chances of another pandemic breaking out is likely. I also think it is important to put these measures in place because (just as Dr. Rosoff touched on a little through questions) in the end the people who end up having to make tough decisions (like in the case of Hurricane Katrina as he also spoke about) may be held accountable when the “wrong people are picked” or when socially unacceptable or pleasant decisions are made. Although it doesn’t sound pleasant, but I feel in the case of a pandemic there must be an acceptable loss of life and that we must set up a better system of who receives vaccines. If not, everyone loses in the end. Just some of the many thoughts that were swirling around up in my head.

During today’s first session, we talked about the consequences of “overpreparing” for a potential pandemic. Millions of vaccines have to be thrown away, which is a huge opportunity cost. The funding allocated for such vaccines could have been used for other health efforts, such as reducing national obesity rates, finding a cure for cancer, and general public health efforts. I have two questions that I want to pose. First of all, how do we reduce the costs of pandemic preparedness and vaccine/antiviral drug production? Secondly, how can we reduce general healthcare costs in the United States so that we can ensure a more equitable healthcare system that discriminates less against those who are poor?